“Converging Global Crises and Why We Deny Them—Part 2”

We noted “Part 1” in last week’s Perfect Storm news and how the author calls them “converging crises” instead. To-may-to, to-mah-to. What you get is more on the entire picture, including five components that he sees coming together. The first is “the political denial syndrome,” which feeds nicely into this next article:

“The Six Stages of Climate Grief”

Argues that the acceptance of climate part of The Perfect Storm, and by inference all its components, will come through the same stages that we go through in grief—denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance. Too many are still in stage number one while others have gotten to two or three. The depression is very real, as those of us who have made it there can testify, but the last is where we start talking “resilience” and making plans to deal. The latter is what the article’s author calls “The Work” while insisting that “acceptance does not mean all is lost.” Sound familiar? We just need to speed up enough others going through the other stages to critical mass that Perfect Storm and get to the other side.

“’If Our Product Is Harmful . . . We’ll Stop Making It”

Of course one of the biggest obstacles to getting us through those stages are the “denial” feeders, the industry aided and abetted by academics whose jobs are to throw sand in the wheels of necessary change in order to protest the status quo which still benefits some people. This post details how that worked with the cigarette industry, which had spokespeople claiming the title of this post decades past the time they had sufficient independent scientific evidence to stop making the cigarettes. The point for us here isn’t just that we see the same thing happening with the deniers of The Perfect Storm components but that the same PR companies that gave us thousands more lung cancer deaths than necessary are the ones telling us not to worry about The Perfect Storm. They can take all that up with their Maker, but we need to know what they are and address it. This post helps that.

“Why the Oil Industry Doesn’t Want You to Remember the Last 14 Years”

Remember the price of gasoline and a barrel of oil 14 years ago? (HINT: $0.95/gallon, $12.05/barrel.) Which shows what a bunch of bushwa the constant gaming of news releases and “studies” by energy companies and their “independent” media people (aka, the deniers and status quo maintainers we discussed above) concerning the “abundant” energy sources today. If we had that kind of energy, the current and futures markets wouldn’t be the way they are. Just because we have sources, that doesn’t mean we don’t have to spend a lot more and go through tougher places to get to it. Deep sea drilling wasn’t necessary in 1988. Neither was fracking. Those still only pay off if the price gets high enough to support the cost and, should the resulting sources get “abundant” enough, the costs drop too much to make getting them out worth it. Ask Cheasapeake Energy right now. Just wait until the guys pulling all this get to the “anger” stage.

“Is US Economic Growth Now Finished?”

Not some wild-eyed Marxist talking but a FORBES op-ed guy pointing to a new research paper getting a lot of attention for answering the question “yes.” Notes how government policy any more tends to prop up the “stake holders” and that innovation and new ideas are needed to sweep out the status quo and those still benefiting from it at the expense of the rest of us. Applies to Corrections Sentencing as well as to the economy.

“Treading Water”

Nice post describing the symbiotic relationship between energy and water and how shortages/problems with one can mean problems/shortages with the other. We make that point here all the time, arguing that you should never listen to talk about energy reserves or alternatives, for example, without asking what the impact on accessible potable water will be. This article sounds much smarter about it.

“Drought-Tolerant Seeds Coming in Few Months”

“Growing Crops with No Water, The Old-Fashioned Way”

Let’s end this with some hopeful news to help more of you get to “The Work” stage and recognize that we can deal with The Storm much more effectively if we want to. In the first article, always concerns about getting too deep into only one seed type because of necessary diversity if something successfully attacks the one seed type (“don’t put your eggs all in one basket” is the usual saying), but we will need a lot of these types of plants in the future. And The Perfect Storm is already broadening the market and the conspicuous need significantly. If monoculture agriculture isn’t enticing you, you can go back to the “dry land farming” practiced before the mega-irrigation days, with ideas of how to do that available in the second article. Recouping older ways of doing things will become common (recycling, for example, and digging up old landfills for stock) and more acceptable. It’s not hopeless. We just have to get past the first few stages to The Work part.

“Wright-Hennepin Launches Minnesota’s First Solar Community Project”

Let’s start with a couple of good news items, like this one that may portend a future model for facilities with multiple buildings that can use their own generated electricity in the future. Solar panels and co-generation. Your future if things go well. What you’ll be wishing for if they don’t.

“Rooftop Farms Flourish in Space-Starved Hong Kong”

And yet another possible model for facilities with multiple buildings. Just don’t put those solar panels where they block the crops. Or vice versa.

“Gas Prices Surge 34 Cents Since June”

More yo-yoing of gasoline prices, making that old budgeting thing that much harder for our operations. Again, it’s not that prices will continuously rise and stay up, but that the ups and downs will have an overall upward trend over time. Right now, it’s up again, but don’t let any future downs fool you. Plan for the ups.

“Will High Oil Costs Permanently Ruin World’s Economy?”

High oil costs, high gasoline and home energy, less spending elsewhere, lower economy, less spending on gasoline and home energy, lower oil costs, higher economy, high oil costs . . . see the pattern? Rinse and repeat.

“Shrinking Mississippi River Means Higher Prices”

Let’s shift to water and higher prices now. Seems heat from global warming evaporates water, which is what real rivers (we grew up in Oklahoma so we only heard about such things) are composed of, and anyone trying to ship things down a real river that’s losing water ends up stuck in mud. The things being shipped then end up needing different and more expensive ways of getting to locations. Including anything we’ve figured into Corrections Sentencing budgets. Any questions?

“Sea Ice in the Arctic and New Data from Cryo-Sat-2”

Not some cyborg thing, just a satellite documenting that scientists’ projections of loss of Arctic sea ice have been way off, verifying again the point we’ve made here that the climate models have indeed been inaccurate but that the errors were optimistic and the situation is worse and faster than they were able to compile. And there’s nothing indicating that that circumstance won’t keep being true in the future. So take what they say a time frame for something is, cut it in at least half, and plan accordingly. You’ll be closer to right than they have been.

“Climate Models That Predict More Droughts Win Further Scientific Support”

The drought models are turning out more accurate than older ones, and they’re predicting a series of droughts over the next couple of decades. Which leads us to the stories below.

“US Drought Exposes Water Management Problems”

Policymakers rely on old and inefficient methods to perform public tasks, costing more than necessary and not really getting the job done as well as other available methods for the same or less price. When funds run low, they suddenly clue in to the need for better, more cost-effective ways of getting the public purpose done, but, when the funds come back, the policymakers fall back on the old and inefficient again. No, we’re not talking about the cycles of “reform” in Corrections Sentencing policy. We’re talking about water management in this country. Click the link and see the parallels.

“Hot Seawater Forces Shutdown of Nuclear Reactor in Connecticut”

One water management problem we have to address is finding enough “Goldilocks” water of “just right” enough temperature to be used in power plants, a problem that is growing and won’t stop as our climate warms and our energy needs from alternatives increase. And given the need for water in fracking and other oil-based energies, the management problem (including who gets it and who doesn’t) won’t go away there either.

“Oregon Breakthrough in Generating Electricity from Wastewater”

Last week we mentioned a story on getting over the “yuck” factor in reusing purified wastewater. This week, sounds like we don’t need it purified to find an energy use for it. As the story just above makes clear, just like we’ll be digging up landfills for those metals in the old air conditioners and washers that we threw in there, we’ll have to recycle that “slightly used” water into more and better uses in the future. We know. Yuck.

 

“Corn-Crop Damage from Drought Poised to Worsen—Bloomberg”

A linky post with a couple more articles than just Bloomberg on where we are on prices and likely to go. HINT: not good. Hope your inmates like soy. Oh, wait, that’s not good either.

“You Don’t Need a Weatherman . . . “

Yet another post full of links, this one giving you a global perspective of what’s been happening weather-wise. Floods, fires, droughts. Is it good or bad that we’re not in this alone?

“America’s Energy Situation in 15 Maps”

Graphic depictions of useful-to-know points regarding each state and globally and the energy situation. Includes the top oil and natural gas producers (and consumers), average gas prices, wind resources, etc. IOW, everything you need to know in, well, 15 maps.

“NREL Helps Cut Building Energy Use in Half”

Don’t know what NREL is? Well, that’s why you click the link. But you don’t have to know what it stands for to see that it may have some very direct applications to how we provide energy to our facilities in coming years. And keep things cool. On a variety of levels.

“SunDial—US Military Leads the Way in Developing and Implementing Mobile Clean Energy Technology”

No surprise to readers here that the US military, responsible for dealing with reality more directly than most of us, is taking the lead not just in climate change planning but also in getting clean energy developed. Not sure Corrections Sentencing needs “a system custom-made for on-the-move military operations,” but so much of the tech we have today came from military and space programs that you can’t help a little optimism here. And after the first three stories, don’t that feel good, as Paula Deen would say.

“U.S. Roads May Be Vulnerable to Climate Change”

May be?

Bunch of different pieces on energy, weather, and water, but some good news mixed in there for a change. See if you can figure out which is which.

“Electricity from Waste Heat”

Germany, not out of the lab yet, but think of the possibilities given all our waste, using semiconductors to convert the heat to power. As Gloria says on “Modern Family,” “Two birds with one bullet.”

“Wind Energy News Round-Up, June-July 2012”

Not all good, but this listing of links to global solar stories shows that the research continues and breakthroughs may be coming. The US may not lead the way, but WalMart is getting into this, talking about providing “always low prices” on renewable power to consumers. Anyone seriously betting against WalMart?

“July 16 News: South and North Korea Facing Worst Drought on Record”

Another news listing, this one from yesterday dealing with climate. You may not get worked up over the Koreas but there are a couple of directly relevant stories for Corr Sent, like the one on ranchers having to sell off skinny cattle in drought areas (think that steak won’t cost you . . . or be tough?) and yet another one citing the costs of the weather problems for governments, this time the $25 million going into the aftermath of this year’s forest fires so far.

“This Drought Ain’t the Dust Bowl, But It Ain’t Good”

This a good story or bad? Not sure. Lot further to go before we get there. That’s good. Bad? No one can say we’re done yet . . . and the climate models say we’ll have a lot of these. You’ll pick up the latest of the pressure on our corn crop news here, if you’re into that.

“Why We Pay Double for Solar in America (But Won’t Forever)”

Another good, bad. Good in that the costs continue to drop and advancements keep being made, just not keeping up with Germany. Yet. Won’t matter who comes up with the stuff we end up using in our facilities if someone will just get the job done fast.

“Drug Traffickers Take Advantage of Energy-Company Roads in Texas”

Hadn’t really thought of this connection between The Perfect Storm and our Corr Sent problems. Just load your drugs to look like oil trucks and you’re apparently in business. Some of the most creative minds in America are in drug trafficking. In case you keep wondering why that War on Some Drugs Used by Some People keeps going on.

“Extreme Weather Threatening Water Supply in Central Kentucky”
“Colorado Water Shortages Leave Farmers, Ranchers Desperate”
“Texas Seeks New Water Supplies Amid Drought”
“Texas Farmers Watered Crops Knowing They Wouldn’t Grow”

The first article gets the connection between weather resulting from global climate change and water supplies exactly right and gives nice details about the operational planning of state water officials, who will become much better known and more powerful as The Perfect Storm continues to build its intensity in coming years. The second story shows it’s happening elsewhere, no surprise in CO, building bureaucratic controls and displaying the intensifying competition for water among the many users, cities and farms, civilians and not, as the heat piles on. The third story adds another familiar state, a state whose population is expected to double in 50 years (good luck with that as The Storm makes TX one of its primary targets). Interesting juxtaposition of this story with the fourth one which notes how West TX farmers, although knowing it wouldn’t do any good, felt they had to continue watering dead plants in order to keep their usage up to convince insurance companies they had done everything they could to save them. As someone who taught about the idiocies of Soviet bureaucracy before reality took that conglomeration down, reading this was déjà vu all over again. In any case, it’s clear that bureaucracy will grow, restrictions will affect everyone (including water hogs like prisons), and that screw-ups are as or more likely than effective decision-making. So maybe we should start working those bugs out now? Ironically, TX may end up being best positioned to show us how . . . once/if it gets its own act together.

“George Will, Climate Scientist, Explains the Weather: It’s Just Summer”

You know, where “derechos” travel half the continent to take out the nation’s capital on a regular basis, where jets sink in melted runways, where the droughts and water problems described across a broad swath of the country happen every summer. On George Will’s planet, where the color of the sky is fiery red and natives worship a higher being who looks amazingly like Will.

“2012 Heat Wave Is Historic, If Not Unprecedented”

Meanwhile, someone with an analytical rather than ideological brain looks at the numbers and does a much better job putting all this into perspective. The recent heat wave, caused by a high pressure dome that moved across the country in its own sweet time, was impressive and racked up some big numbers, but not numbers completely unknown for most places, comparable to Dust Bowl days but not to 1988 in terms of new record highs, to which July 2012 was only in second place. The author runs the numbers, though, and finds that the heat dome also wasn’t one of the record-breakers, leaving us with this disconcerting thought: “It came in second with a lesser dome so what happens when one of the more concentrated ones comes rolling in?”

“We’re Fighting the Wrong Fights over Energy Subsidies”

Fourth and final part of that interview series we tracked last week with the head of Bloomberg New Energy Finance (we know you’ve been waiting!!). Guy notes that it’s not a matter of whether the government should be subsidizing—it’s been subsiding oil, nuke, fracking for decades while dumping on most other alternatives. Cautions that the subsidies are needed, but not to go overboard given the uncertainties in all the energy areas, despite the happy, “invest in our business” talk we get from their advocates.

“Marginal Oil Production Costs Are Heading Towards $100/Barrel”

Meanwhile, on Planet Reality, the cost of making it economical to go after that oil has about reached $100/barrel, echoing a point we make here regularly when shaking our heads at the happy talk about significantly lower oil prices. What happens when more of these questionably abundant supplies do go online is that search and development of more sources at the resulting prices are unattractive and/or infeasible. Meaning that the prices will have to go back up and, if the economies hit by high energy costs can’t rebuild to suck the existing energy back out, the industry doesn’t function maximally. Energy will be the yo-yo of the elements of The Perfect Storm, but that uncertainty and flux will not be enjoyable even when the prices are on the lower side. Those fluxes will just add more resistance to how we try to deal with The Storm.

then lets him cherry-pick industry data to churn out a happy talk study [sic] about all the abundant oil out there just ready to be used, giving him and the study the legitimacy of that hallowed institution whose political leaders gave us Vietnam and the current global economic debacle. Then an environmentalist buys the study’s glowing picture of the wonderful future ahead and sets off Rebuttal City among the writers who actually, you know, pay attention to real data realistically analyzed. Sounds a lot like what happened in the late 1980s/early 1990s when NIJ and the US Attorney General were bastardizing data to assure us that we could solve our crime problems just by building the prisons they were throwing dollars at states to build. You may have seen the reports of the study or even the column that set people off. You can find the specialist responses here, here, here, and here.

Again, the major points: the easy, Jed Clampett oil has been found and the harder oil, the oil that everyone has known about for years but it’s been too expensive until now to try to get out, is our future. Too expensive to support current expenditures in our Corrections Sentencing or personal budgets. Too expensive to be worth it when the price of oil yo-yo’s from the high ceiling it reaches when the economies try to recover to the low floors when the economies contract and back again. Too expensive to pay for the energy it takes to get the energy out. This doesn’t count the costs of the abuse of diminishing water supplies with overuse for getting it out and then the pollution of drinking water that follows or of the effects on land that gets churned up or turned into earthquake zones. In other words, when the same geniuses who thought they could turn Vietnam into a democracy or invented financial “innovations” that brought down the wealth most of us had built up endorse a study selling you the glory of the oil future, it might pay to pay attention to their track record and to prepare accordingly.

--Mike Connelly

After yesterday’s call for accepting the reality of what’s happening climate-wise so we can start redesigning and redoing what will be needed for The Perfect Storm, here are a couple of Mainstream Media pieces that make the same points, but maybe they’ll be more acceptable, being Mainstream. The first one provides us the best data if you’re willing to be convinced:

Since Jan. 1, the United States has set more than 40,000 hot temperature records, but fewer than 6,000 cold temperature records, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Through most of last century, the U.S. used to set cold and hot records evenly, but in the first decade of this century America set two hot records for every cold one, said Jerry Meehl, a climate extreme expert at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. This year the ratio is about 7 hot to 1 cold. Some computer models say that ratio will hit 20-to-1 by midcentury, Meehl said.

If it were just “random” and “usual” nature, the ratio should be as many cold records as hot. And better for possible acceptance by the Mainstream, the article quotes one of the halfwits with a degree who always gets hauled out to provide “the other side” and then whacks him down. He’s been discredited by his own field and he’s prominent in conservative politics, but got to have that “other side,” don’t you know. Very promising that he didn’t get away with it this time.

The other Mainstream piece is this interview with a venture capitalist and CEO of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, who makes it clear that it’s the cost of future energy, not how many drops may still be in some sand somewhere that hasn’t been sucked out yet, that will determine how our economies and societies play out in the future, including Corrections Sentencing. It’s the first of a four-part run but here’s one question/answer that sets up the whole shebang:

Q. What do you make of the notion, echoed by a recent report out of Harvard [PDF], that we’re entering a new age of plentiful oil?

A. If everybody’s so happy about this oil glut, why is the price still 80, 90, 100 bucks [per barrel]? If they’re really brave, they should say, “the price will go back to $28 and this whole nightmare of the last 10 years is over. We can all buy Hummers again.” But they’re not going to be brave enough to say that — they’re only going to talk about volume, not price.

It’s extraordinary how little understanding there is of the role of energy prices in the rate of oil exploration and exploitation. When I started a business in 2004, the oil price was $28 [per barrel] and, surprise, surprise, we hadn’t found very much for a while. Then the oil price went up and, surprise, surprise, we found a lot. When the price is low, when there’s little exploration and it looks like we’re not finding anything, the peakists go nuts and say, “we’re going to run out.” Then when the price goes up and we bother to do some prospecting and find stuff, the oilists say, “see, we’ve got enough forever.”

Tight-oil technology has progressed faster than anticipated, but on the other hand, so has middle-class-driven demand in China and India. It’s not even a draw — we’re still seeing high prices. For all that there’s a lot more, it’s still not enough to meet the demand.

The question is not, do we have enough oil, but at what price — what are the economic implications? I have absolutely no doubt that there will still be oil in 300 years. What price will it be? What is the price at which oil is materially slowing down the wellbeing of populations? That’s the real question: when is oil extracting a rent that’s over and above its utility? (That’s before you even get into externality costs.)

IOW, here’s how we deal with reality, from a guy whose business is to understand it, not play ideological games with it. This first part ends with a good discussion that should clear up any questions you have about the current and future roles and costs of natural gas in where we go from here. All in all, a good day for applying tests of reality, not dogma and politics, to what we’ll need to do to get through The Perfect Storm and its costs and impacts on state budgets and agencies. Like us.

Bad News First

“Experts: Oklahoma, Not Texas, Had Hottest Summer Ever”

Not the bragging rights the two states usually quarrel over. OK averaged just under 87 degrees per day in the summer (if the average low was 74, the average high was 100, hypothetically, only notsomuch in my experience of it before I moved to MO in August). Here’s the thing. That broke OK’s previous summer record, set in 1934, you remember it as The Dust Bowl . . . by almost TWO DEGREES. Not two-tenths, TWO. July was also a record, averaging over 89 degrees, and that was two-tenths higher than any previous July, which tells you it was the other summer months that killed the record. And check out the clueless OK “state climatologist” who still hasn’t figured out that “normal” isn’t now.

“Self-DustBowlification II: Farmers in the High Plains and California Are Depleting Groundwater, Study Says”

Speaking of Dust Bowl. At current rates 35% of the “southern” High Plains (Nebraska to OK/TX panhandles) won’t be able to support irrigation by 2047. Some half-measures discussed, as well as “groundwater banking,” storing up excess surface water for use in later dry periods. IOW, the future of those areas. Money quote: “Even with groundwater banking and other innovative solutions, this study and other research show that managing water supplies is going to be one of the toughest environmental challenges during the next century. Water demand will rise along with the population, with the U.S. expected to have about 440 million residents by 2050, up from 312 million in 2011. At the same time, water supplies will be on the decrease.” But don’t worry. Can’t affect government programs or spending, especially not Corrections Sentencing. Our status quo “stake holders” keep ignoring all this so it must be okay.

“Global Warming May Reduce U.S. Nuclear and Coal Power Output Up to 16 Percent by 2060”

What happens when so much of your power generation depends on fresh water supplies that are dwindling, even outside the areas mentioned above? Well, your nuke and coal-fired plants don’t have the ability to function. That’s all. Got some money to invest? Neither do the banks.

“Texas May Triple Power Prices to Avert Summer Blackouts”

So, if you can’t increase supply of energy, what can you do to deal? Well, there’s that “raise prices” thing to lower demand. In effect, the higher prices are a tax and a new demand on consumer/taxpayer budgets as well as on government budgets and associated costs. Texas may end up setting the standard for other states. Problem is, it may not be a good one.

“States Explore New Ways to Tax Motorists for Road Repair”

As fed dollars decrease and things like prisons suck up state dollars, the governments start looking at tax increases to meet their budgets. Why not require motorists to feed in their current mileage numbers before they fill up again, set the pump computers to keep things like going 4000 miles between fillups from being possible, and then charge for miles driven? Your privacy’s been gone for over a decade so don’t start moaning about that one, either. The alternative is more taxes other places, or more cuts in state and local budgets. Including Corrections Sentencing in most semi-sane states.

“New Mexico Wildfire Now a Record-Setting ‘Megafire,’ Budget Cuts in Congress Undermine Federal Response”

Of course, there will be other demands on government budgets as normal abnormal events hit more and more frequently in the mix of The Perfect Storm. This story’s a couple of days old, but the half billion bucks now cut from fire budgeting isn’t likely to come back. The list of ways this will affect NM’s state and local budgets is long, and maybe coming to a state near you in the near future. (If those tornadoes don’t get there first. Ya listenin’, Maryland??)

Good News Now

“Affordable Passive Houses Come to Santa Fe”

This area of the country clearly has as much at stake as anyone in the country and has a heritage of innovation and adaptation in these kinds of climate, except when everything burns down (see above). Yes, there are those extinct tribes throughout their history, yes, but they’ve already taken up the challenges there, unlike the bulk of the rest of us. Who you wanna bet money on?

“The Recession’s Silver Lining: Traffic Congestion Down 30% in America’s 100 Largest Metropolitan Areas”
“Use of Public Transit Is Soaring in 2012”

Just as higher oil prices put a ceiling on how much economies can grow before they get knocked back down, although the rachet effect of it will still nail us in the end, another good thing coming from both the downturn and the higher energy prices is fewer driver miles and less congestion. Plus, people are finding the use of public transit more attractive. Good thing that’s funded by those dollars on those trees and can’t affect budgets for anything else government does. Right? Right?

. . . We really didn’t say that the “good news” was going to outnumber the “bad,” you know.

--Mike Connelly

Likely that the news this weekend and through much of next week (until the next Kim-Kanye sighting anyway) will be the sort of thing to make you turn to ESPN or Hallmark Channel. (Personally, I would recommend you turn to Sports Blog Nation and the fact that my son is one of their major writers and covering the French Open right now has nothing to do with that.) In case that’s where you already are and don’t know what I’m talking about, here’s a quick summary.

Global economy is tanking. Spain is about to take down Europe, China and India are both coming in for varying degrees of softness of landings, no longer propping up the rest of the world, Japan has that nuclear thing still to deal with, and the US, well, growth wasn’t what was first reported, unemployment wasn’t what was expected, stock market which has been a diminishing zone anyway isn’t taking it all well. State and local governments obviously are not and will not be immune to all this in either the near or long term. And add to that that our carbon emissions are going up, not down, and at rates that virtually condemn us to outcomes predicted by the climate models but faster since those models have proven so conservative at seeing what was going to happen when. [Be sure to read the bottom of the linked article to see a typical economist finally squashed by the reporter for blowing typical smoke out his bilge hole for once.]

Okay. So what do we do? I was on a small town school board during the Bush I recession and we were faced with a sudden downturn in our resources (although clearly nothing on the order of what we’ve just been through or, worse, what we’re looking at now). I also worked for the OK DOC when the first waves of The Perfect Storm started washing ashore a few years ago. You learn a few things.

You have two choices. Run helter-skelter, cutting everything equally, over and over in the vain hope that things will get better soon. OR . . . you do what every state and local government and all their agencies are going to have to do for the next several years if they don’t want to end up a dog’s breakfast (some, alas, will not have a clue how to avoid that, as AZ and AL are already proving virtually daily). Here are the steps:

Make as much sense as you can of your likely reality in the future, not what you wish for or what your ideology insists will be despite all evidence to the contrary.
Determine what your likely resources will be over the substantial period you will have to make your decisions for.
List your functions and prioritize them into “can’t get rid of,” “might get rid of,” and “can get rid of” and also list the ones you can do other ways at less cost and/or effort.
Match your available resources to your priority list and your “other ways” list.
Manage results as effectively as possible.
Continue to monitor not just implementation but also any changes in your reality.
Rinse and repeat.

Not rocket science, folks, but does require a few connected brain cells and leadership and will. Essentially you have to say, “This is what we have to do and this is what we have to spend. How do we get it done? Can we find better, more cost-effective ways? If we can’t or we run out of resources before our responsibilities, what do we cut first, second, so on until we do have enough resources to get done what’s remaining? And what else is still out there that might make us, like our on-dash GPS, start ‘recalculating’?”

This is our future, yes. But you know what? It’s not all bad news, and some of it fits back into what we’ll need to do. Economy falling? Well, that will bring down energy use and prices, kind of an automatic thermostat on each other. Other energy sources become more viable. Did you know that during this month Germany ran half its economy on solar power? The UN has recently issued a report that indicates that doing the things we’ll need to to deal with The Perfect Storm will add millions of jobs to our economies. And, as this story shows, even small-scale work is possible in the kinds of neighborhoods we send our released inmates back into that can build quality of life as well as the urban gardens that we advocate DOC involvements in here. There’s no point in being hopeless or helpless here.

We do have two choices. Piecemeal, poorly thought, likely poorly implemented responses uncoordinated and unprioritized. Or their opposite. My school board and my DOC were experts at maxing out the best that could be done with the available resources. I’ve seen it done. Leadership and will. And constant recognition that reality is in charge and we have to be the best at what we do and stop doing what we can’t anymore. A simple formula but complex in its execution. Which is better than the reverse, as this guy will explain if you still need it.

What do you say? Isn’t it time to get going?

“U.S. Forecasters Say Heat Will Stay on This Summer”

Well, I used to project prison populations so I don’t condemn weather forecasters for backtracking. The prediction we reported a while back that this summer might be mild after May?  Fuggedaboudit.  Looks like 2/3rds of the country will have a hotter than average summer.  And that’s after the last 12 months from April back to May 2011 turned out to be the hottest 12 consecutive months on record. Hope you got plenty of water for that garden you planted.  Like we did.

“Study: Extreme Rain Storms in Midwest Have Doubled in Last 50 Years”

That’s with only about half of the BEST case scenario forfuture warming having played out. Tornadoes, floods, just general gully-washers (people from our neck of the woods can interpret that for you). Billions of dollars in damage, some repairs from state and local gov budgets.  Agriculture and other losses cutting into state revenue.  The Midwest likely to get nailed.  Just as they breathed sighs of relief from not being heavily hammered by those drought predictions.

"Tiles May Help Shrink Carbon Footprint by Harnessing Pedestrian Power"

Good news on possible (and weird) energy resource.  Surely there's some way we could make this work at facilities.

“Vermont Fracking Ban:  Green Mountain State Is First in U.S. to Restrict Gas Drilling Technique”

That the state has no natural gas to frack seems to be overlooked.  Yeah, yeah, it’s Ben and Jerry-Land, but here’s the Governor’s quote you need to hear since it does apply where you and your kids live and to all your futures: 

In the coming generation or two,"drinking water will be more valuable than oil or natural gas," Shumlin said.

"Human beings survived for thousands and thousands of years without oil and without natural gas," he said. "We have never known humanity or life on this plant to survive without clean water."

“The Age of Extreme Oil: ‘This Used to Be a Forest?’”

Story about Canada’s oil sands and how much more it takes now to get it now that Jed Clampett oil has disappeared.  Not necessarily exciting, but this section with some basic stats to keep in mind when you hear the wonders of energy future stories:

Alberta's oil sands are the obvious example: Here, on average, two tonnes of earth must be strip-mined and seven barrels of water heated to steam in order to produce a barrel of oil. It takes a barrel's worth of energy to produce just three barrels of oil; 30 years ago it would have been 100.

 

But extreme oil isn't just a Canadian phenomenon: In 1985, only 6 per cent of the oil from the Gulf of Mexico came from wells drilled in water more than 300 metres deep. By 2009, it was 80 percent, including BP's Deepwater Horizon rig, which delved 1,500 metres underwater and then another four kilometres below the sea floor before exploding into history in its accident on April 20, 2010.

It’s not that the stuff’s not there.  It’s that the costs of it (and all the stuff to get it out, like water) keep getting higher.   And so do ours.

Some quick hits to catch you up on some good articles describing The Storm and, more importantly, ways to deal with it.

“Oil Prices Could Double by 2022, IMF Warned”

What?  What?  But, but . . . all that shale oil and fracking and the Easter Bunny and that guy who said he had a good bridge to sell me . . . ?  The researchers here are smart enough to pay attention not to “all the possible stuff out there” but what can be obtained at a price that can maintain our current economies.  Tends to be a difference, especially since the price we have now is, you know, helping to sink state budgets.  Demand is growing as it must when you have countries developing and not being offset enough by conservation in the developed nations.  Imagine if every third nation out there got to the same level of economy as the US.  Enough oil?? The report concludes that “its oil market "models" have been significantly more accurate than others in a world where predictability has been historically low. But it adds: "Our empirical results also indicate that if the model's predictions continue to be accurate as they have been over the last decade… the future will not be easy."  Duh. But we do still have a bit of time to do the things we and others have talked about here to get ready.  Just a bit, but a bit.  If we’ll just pull our heads out of our as . . . ascots.

“Long-Range Ice Forecast:  Things Could Get Very Grim”

Hmm.  A theme is emerging.  The “ice” in question here isn’t the new Ice Age that your Cliff Clavin buddy keeps telling you in the bar or on talk radio is really our weather future. The ice here is that at the poles, melting faster than the eevvviiiilllll predictors have projected in past reports and likely to keep getting faster.  The good thing about this piece is it gives us some affirmation that we’re not the only ones to notice that, of 10 predictions gotten wrong by forecasters, 9 of them go in the wrong direction for us.  Keep that in mind when you hear the next ones.

“Rising Temperature to Hit Wheat Production in India”

Okay, energy, weather, what else from The Storm?  Oh, yeah, FOOD.  Tied to energy and weather!!  And water given the dependence there on irrigation.  It’s like a Perfect Storm!!  Good thing there aren’t many mouths to feed there.  Or that the world wheat market could be affected, thereby affecting US and, you know, Corrections Sentencing.

BUT WHERE’S THAT “WAYS TO DEAL WITH IT” YOU PROMISED?!?!?!

Well, here’s one:

“’Hug the Monster’ for Realistic Hope in Global Warming (or How to Transform Your Fearful Inner Climate)”

Yes, we could panic or start stocking the larder in the middle of Idaho when we read this stuff. Or . . . we could follow what this guy is saying:

But if your mind has been prepared in advance to recognize the psychological grip of fear, focus on it, and then transform its intense energy into action —sometimes even by changing it into anger — and by also engaging the thinking part of your brain to work the problem, your chances of survival go way up.

The guy’s not naïve. He understands the truly existential nature of what we’re facing, and backs it up with evidence.  But he’s not buying any more the “we can’t talk publicly about this or people will go nuts” logic that has undergirded too much of our approach to this point.  (By “our,” I’m clearly not talking about those screamers at JCO, am I?)  He believes, as we do, that real leadership, not the “lite” brands we have on the shelves right now, can motivate and mobilize all nations to address the needs, just as FDR and “we have nothing to fear . . . but fear itself” did in a lesser crisis decades ago.

Go read it, drink your Red Bull, and let’s start acting.  It’s time to hug that sucker and then make it manageable.

“Micro-Power Hydro:  An Energy Alternative Whose Time Is Coming”

And to help us get there, it wouldn’t hurt to have ideas like this one pan out, developing hydro power at sites much smaller than the giant rivers we now have to use but big enough that, when all are combined on the grid, they can produce functional equivalents to the big boys.  The US Dept of Energy apparently thinks it can be done.  Only takes will and determination.  That leadership thing again.  When the history books get written, it won’t be said that our problems were unsolvable. We knew how, just like we do in Corrections Sentencing.  Whether the conclusion of that chapter ends up horrific or the best we can still manage right now will be the result of the people, not the challenges.  Just like in Corrections Sentencing.

Haven’t really brought you up-to-date lately on a bunch of The Perfect Storm-related news items that impress upon us once again the scope and proximity of its wash as it starts its drenching.  Here are a few items that should catch your attention while you still have time to plan (and make time if you haven’t already):

“Decades of Data Show Spring Advancing Faster Than Experiments Suggest”

We frequently make the point here that it’s not wrong to assume that the climate models are wrong. What’s wrong is to assume that means that there is no real warming or danger when what it has consistently meant so far is that the models are too conservative and impacts are happening much faster than the models originally predicted.  This article is proof that we’re not just making that up, or that it’s never too late to get started planning since we really don’t know the timelines we’re looking at.

“When Global Warming Ate My Life”

Harvard Business School (well-known liberal enclave) prof describes how a wicked lightning strike woke her up to the reality of The Storm.  We’ll see 5%-6% more lightning for every C degree (the weird one the rest of the world uses, F is more) increase in global warming.  She doesn’t want to see anymore.  The real value of the piece is her discussion of “the error of predictability,” the tendency we have to believe that “the near future will follow from the near past.”  Not when things are moving exponentially, as they are with most of the natural elements of The Storm.

“EU green power needs market access to thrive-draft”

The point of highlighting this article isn’t (just) to verify that other nations and their governments are taking The Perfect Storm seriously but to raise this question: who’s going to dominate the world economy with new, alternative energy sources as The Storm shows that the remaining carbon-based sources cost too much, do too much damage, emit too many greenhouse gases, and use too much scarce water to make them econ-viable against the other sources, despite the CNBC and politician talk?  You might notice that the words “United States” don’t appear in this article.

“Wind farms 'have major economic benefit'”

As we discuss renewable and alternative energy development.  This time, Britain.  And again, no reference to the US.

“Water commons, water citizenship and water security”

An important article on how we can positively shape our adaptation to the changes in fresh water accessibility in the states here and nations globally that look vulnerable in the near future, giving hope it can actually be done despite some initial missteps that it details.  What’s really use about this article, though, is that the principles and practices that it outlines for water usage are actually transferrable to other areas that are likely to need organization beyond “my gun is biggest.”  The displacements that are going to occur because of water problems may be furthest from state and local policy minds right now, but we’ve shown that some states and some folks within states are already fighting the battles. Count yourself lucky if you’re in a state where future or current water supplies haven’t started being political. And luckier if you can still say that five years from now.

--Mike Connelly

Figured we hit you with negative news enough that positive news should be raised to its own separate post. No, it’s not that it looks like we may have peaked in the low $4+ per gallon on gasoline on average without climbing up to $5 beyond a few very special locations this year (not for sure, but that goes well with last week’s news that after a predicted hot May, this summer and its energy bills may not be as bad as last year), primarily because no one’s holding their breath that something tacky couldn't happen to push them back up again before the year is out.

No, the good news is that, after years of false starts and hoaxes, it looks like a version of “cold fusion” nuclear power may finally be on the horizon for real.  We’re no more rocket scientist than you are, so we don’t really get the details that the article describes, but the implications for a new form of energy that doesn’t emit greenhouse gases (unlike all the hype we’re hearing about shale gas and fracking and such these days as investors are more and more needed to fleece .. . uh, entice).  This has been a holy grail sort of thing for a while because it doesn’t lend itself as easily to the waste or terrorism concerns that traditional nuke does.

Now, as with all stories on the wonderful world of tech in the beginning, absolutely nothing is said here about possible concerns or unforeseen consequences, which always happen well after the horses have fled the tech barn.  And the article sees the use of water for fuel as a great, so it plays the usual game of ignoring the problems of accessible fresh water in The Perfect Storm, as all those natural gas hype stories do.  There’s also no indication of the scale of this, so it’s certainly not a bad idea to keep planning those energy (and water) conservation measures that we keep talking about.  In fact, the worst news right now about stories like these is the likelihood that, even without anything actually demonstrated or costs known right now, they may tempt us to put off even longer the actions that just make common sense even if energy supplies are abundant, just like the natural gas hype stories.  If this or the gas don't come through, then we're even deeper in the hole.  The US military certainly isn't taking any chances and is setting the model for all the other government organizations to be following.

Still, if we’re going to a world of electronic vehicles as individuals and organizations in order to cut emissions, getting to a world of non-carbon-based electricity is vital. This story gives us some hope that it can be done, although, as they say, we don’t know “the rest of the story” yet and the structural changes necessary for that are formidable.  But not as formidable as The Storm. 

So let's enjoy the good news and hope we get more soon.

Too much stuff to just run “Outside the Silo” this week so special edition. Ends better than it starts, we promise.

“Governments failing to avert catastrophic climate change, IEA warns”
“Clean Energy Lags Put World on Pace for 6 Degrees Celsius of Global Warming”
Energy ministers from around the world hearing that cheery message. If nothing’s done, temp goes up 6C by 2100, according to models and researchers who have been consistently wrong so far. Consistently too optimistic. And don’t forget that the “C” is the temp measure that weird people (aka the rest of the world) use.  Ours is bigger.  And better, of course.

“Climate Change: Why the Government Must Meet the Challenge”
So says Britain’s Sec of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs. He’s conservative, but there those guys deal with reality. No word on whether his higher bosses agree.

“Mexico puts climate change action into law”
Sensing a pattern here? Details in the article. And, as the 11th worst emissions emitting nation, this could have an impact. Brazil and South Korea also moving that way. Yeah, that’s pretty much the list of the more developed nations.

“MAPS: Biblical Flooding Is Coming to a Refinery Near You”
Want a specific idea of what happens if/when we don’t do anything or nearly enough? Daily double when you realize that many of the nation’s refineries, power plants, etc., are along coastal areas that will be the beneficiaries of new sea water.

“Peak oil spells bad news for input costs”
For farmers in this case. And for people who buy what they produce. Which makes it bad news for input costs for all of us. And makes your making your facility as self-sufficient as possible, training inmates (not just exploiting them) to be able to reenter their communities to do the same.

“Green Gotham”
If you need examples of how your small city (aka DOC facility) could do that self-sufficiency thing . . . .

“Saudi Arabia Builds Up Crude Inventories: Goldman”
For those of you buying the whole “the Saudis can still pump out however much we need if situations go bad” fable.

“El Nino May Cool U.S. This Summer, Cutting Electric Need”
See? We’re capable of passing along good news. Looks like special hot through May, but cooler than last year after that. So you might want to portion out your supplies and budgets accordingly. (Of course, being cooler than last summer doesn’t exactly mean cool . . . .)

“As Washington Gridlock Persists, States Get Creative in Funding Renewable Energy”
More good news for those of us who have given up on the feds pulling their heads out of lower orifices. Hawaii and Connecticut major examples right now. Check out CT’s idea of a “green bank” to provide low-interest loans to energy projects. No reason I can see that agencies couldn’t be eligible and pay the “loan” back through the savings produced. Test-drive that one by your legislator next time you get a chance.

Have a good weekend.

--Mike Connelly

I know I can be accused right now of being a Colorado groupie for all the things that state is doing to address The Perfect Storm, not just in Corrections Sentencing but overall, but I’m willing to bear it (it would be nice if they’d give me a t-shirt, though).  This story is an excellent example, the Governor’s speech to a “State of the Rockies” conference (not the ballteam) the other day.  He not only recognizes that Australia already has been dealing with what we will have to and has provided us ready-made models, he says flat-out, “Our self-discipline in the amount of water we use is going to be the foundation of everything we will do.”  Yep.  Can’t be summed up any better.  Also can’t think of any other governor in any other state that gets it as well.

You might not know it but this story about researcher finding an insecticide that might be responsible for the truly scary bee hive/society collapses of the last few years might be the best news you’ll ever hear.  Why?

At least a third of U.S. honeybee colonies have died out in the past six years. “The significance of bees to agricultural cannot be understated,” Lu said. They pollinate about one third of U.S. crop species, including almonds, apples, grapes, soybeans, cotton, and others, the failure of which could lead not only to food shortages, but also to large economic hits for farmers—and consumers.

That news comes at the same time as this story of growing food shortages globally and the threat of social and political unrest that already toppled Egypt’s government over the issues last year.

Of course, Bayer, the maker of the insecticide (and the former provider of the baby aspirin I will now buy from others), assures us that the study is bogus according to its studies.  And, if you buy that one, there is a department in OK that will tell you that the drug courts it both evaluates and advocates for in the state legislature are just peachy keen despite the one independent evaluation of them finding such claims “excessive” that I’ll be glad to sell you.

Think bees are scary?  What about the Amazon Rainforest, seeing moisture levels being drawn away by the Atlantic as it warms, making it more susceptible to fires?  Oh, well, that’s far away.  No need for us to . . .  what? “Dry, windy conditions fuel wildfires in East” . . . Never mind.

This story reminds us that those of us (us included) who focus solely on gasoline prices affecting transportation and the price of all the things transported are making a big mistake.  We need to be stressing the increasing price of diesel more since its impact is even greater in many ways.  So we will now.  And it's already over $4 a gallon.  Meanwhile, this story alerts us to a probable 6% higher price of gasoline for the summer.  Got that built into your budgets, do you?

Finally, let’s end this with some good news, to demonstrate that, yes, The Perfect Storm won’t be fun but also, yes, there are things we can do.  This is a very important story on those “food deserts” in poor communities that we’ve discussed regularly now, especially since those communities tend to coincide with the areas where we send the bulk of our releasees.  Specifically, it details SNAP Gardens, which isn’t just the growing but also the whole network of credits, distribution, and partnerships with non-profits that will be needed to ensure adequate food for those residents.  We’ve mentioned here the existing and needed programs to get offenders trained to participate in these efforts, to help them rebuild constructive lives in and for their communities rather than just going back to the same old crap that got them with us to start with.  Stories like these really do make you hopeful that people aren’t just paying attention but are taking the necessary actions to build the processes and structures to confront the challenges.  (Oh, and you don’t have land, but you have a major rooftop area, say, like an abandoned shopping center?  Maybe you could find out this Brooklyn project, too.)

See?  You can have a good week.  So do.

--Mike Connelly

I know we’ve made this point before, but, after this NY Times’ cut-and-paste from energy company press releases job a couple of days back, here are some of the questions you have to ask (and they should have) before you start buying that bridge or sending that money to Nigeria.

1.     How much crude oil and “other” petroleum products are needed year to year, day to day, by both this nation and the world (since the products will go where the money is highest), and what percentage of the “finds” or “new resources” of that yearly or daily amount does the new stuff make?

2.     What are the actual levels of extraction done (not the “potential” stuff) in similar “finds” in the past and did those levels decline annually as predicted (if predicted) or go down faster (as has happened to most “fracking” sites so far)?

3.     How much energy do you have to put into the “finds” and what is the ratio of that to the energy derived?

4.     How much money and resources do you have to put in, compared to the Jed Clampett (shoot a hole in the ground) efforts of the past?

5.     How much water do you have to put in, especially if the “finds” are in areas expected to be short of fresh water resources in the near future?

6.     How much waste and pollution are generated, where are they going to go, and who’s going to pay for it?

7.     What impact will the new “finds” have on greenhouse gas emissions and thus the warming of the planet?

8.     What impact will the new “finds” have on the environment in and around the resource area, such as  land stripping or the earthquakes now strongly implicated by research in the fracking process?

9.     What impact will the new “finds,” after all these factors are added in, have on the price of gasoline and diesel, or will there be any connection at all?

10. Couldn’t think of a tenth one at this point, but 10 points are more impressive than 9.

PR pieces like the NY Times turned out without dealing with these points lead to false hopes at a time when realism isn’t just called for, it’s existentially vital.  I’ve gotten to where I don’t expect better of the Times, but at least you have a chance against them in your future planning if you come prepared.  Hope this helps.

The Water Politics of The Perfect Storm

We keep bringing your attention to the issues of water that are lighting states up a bit now in prep for the floodlights of the next few years.  The reason, of course, is to ask you to start your thoughts and planning about how you and your department/facilities will deal with both the actual water shortages and the impact on state budgets if you’re in an area greatly affected.  And given that in recent years states like Arizona have already been asking why Wisconsin should have all that water and not give some to it, those of you in states with water shouldn’t get too cocky and not think your budgets, such as for litigation, won’t be affected.  This story about the difficulties of getting things done within a state (CA) and this story about what happens when one state does something affecting another state (Las Vegas pulling water out of Utah) are very nice recent examples.  Here’s what a recent analysis said about California’s future water needs, including coordination of agencies, and the necessity of planning:

The lack of integrated, comprehensive planning has made science less useful in decision making for the delta, the committee said.It recommended that California review water planning and management in anticipation of future circumstances. This review should devote attention to water scarcity, balanced consideration of all statewide water uses and the practices that govern them, and available engineering alternatives. In the absence of a review, it would be difficult to resolve delta water management problems in other than a piecemeal fashion.

Feel free to substitute “Corrections Sentencing problems” for “delta water management problems” in the last sentence.

“U.S. Heat Waves to Intensify From New York to Los Angeles”

So says the International Panel on Climate Change, estimating that globally the costs to econ output might be as high as $35 trillion (with a “tr”) by 2070.  The US won’t be exempted.  The IPCC has been criticized by climate change deniers for its predictions, and technically, the critics have been right.  The IPCC’s past projections have indeed been off.  The resulting years afterward have consistently shown climate change to be happening faster and with more severity than the predictions indicated.

e“Hot, crowded, and running out of fuel: Earth of 2050 a scary place”

Want some cheery news after all that?  Well . . . sorry.  This report from the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (a business-oriented body from Europe mainly, hence the “s” where the “z” should be) details what we can expect in less than 40 years if the status quo continues to be maintained.   And “scary” really is kinda mild for what is predicted (and remember the item above and how projections have been wrong in the bad direction so far).  It does outline what needs to be done and when, showing that effects can be limited if action starts now.  Here’s the conclusion:

The message from the OECD is clear: the status quo is no longer acceptable. "Progress on an incremental, piecemeal, business-as-usual basis in the coming decades will not be enough," it states, quite categorically. And that's not coming from an environmental think tank, but an international body (albeit one with a Eurocentric outlook) with 34 members with the remit of stimulating economic growth and trade.

If you wonder why we at JCO emphasize immediate action and look crossly at “incremental,” “first steps” kind of thinking in Corrections Sentencing Reform, this is why.  The status quo cannot hold in the face of The Perfect Storm this report chronicles so change can either be directed knowledgeably or be chaotic and stupid.  There will be no “second bites at the apple” in any reform area, and that includes Corrections Sentencing.  That box is circling the drain and thinking outside it just sucks you down, too.  Fast and dramatic triage is and will increasingly be needed NOW, which in our area means prison eliminations and movement of triaged resources to shore up and institutionalize the more effective public safety mechanisms quickly and efficiently.  The alternative will be “lifeboat” rioting, like we’re already seeing in California, for example, the state pushing counties out of the boat which then push offenders out through more “fees” and “paying their own way.”  Whether better public safety results doesn’t even seem to be a concern since most CA counties are apparently just replicating what the state did and in line for the same outcomes, county by county.  That’s the future of all states if we don’t take to heart the message above and act on it:

"Progress on an incremental, piecemeal, business-as-usual basis in the coming decades will not be enough.”

NOW.

(oh, and have a good weekend.)

 

Don’t get excited.  We’re talking about a few recent stories to go along with that longer overview we did the other day.  We’ve talked about the disconnect between declining actual gasoline use in the US and higher fuel prices, but you probably still have that furl in your brow.  Maybe you won’t if you read here and here.  (Hint: lotsa reasons, speculation to Middle East problems, so you just can’t make the connection anymore.  Whatever conservation you do at your facilities will just be to cut your costs, not bring overall costs down.)

In Kansas, the governor has determined that “If we are to have a future, we have to have water.”  Guess that’s why he’s governor.  But they have a broad agenda going there to focus attention (well or badly will be known later), something that your state should have, too, if it doesn’t already.  And we’re betting that “corrections sentencing usage” isn’t anywhere on that agenda anyway.  Oh, and speaking of Kansas and other Tornado Alley states (which has gotten to include most states these days, hasn’t it?), weather experts are saying this year looks to be particularly lively.  But they never hit facilities, so don’t worry about it.  (While we’re talking about water, here’s some research on what you can expect from the growing ocean acidity, the result of evaporating water and mixing of fresh/salty, upper depths/lower. 

And what would one of these posts be without our friends in Texas, pretty much Ground Zero for The Perfect Storm and its impact on corrections sentencing, even if they will fight that concept with their last breath?  Turns out the state lost 5.6 million trees in their cities last year in the drought, with real costs beyond the lost trees, over $800 million.  The bad news?  Because of the stress of last year’s drought, the toll will be worse if they continue it this year.  Plus, they’re rationing water now with long-term impact on the state rice crop, another food impact systemically related to climate and water.  Perfect Storm.

And yesterday we noted this warning from a West Virginia economist (!!), pointing out that climate change is reality and the state better start dealing with it.  Here are some really good quotes, but don’t avoid reading the whole thing:

"Despite the politics of the moment the science is clear — that's what's causing the problem. That and gasoline," Goodstein said just before speaking at the University of Charleston event. "So, I think folks in West Virginia have just got to sort of accept those facts. You can obviously fight them for a while, but they're going to catch up with you, and find a new way forward."

Though there are industry officials and politicians who would like to ignore the evidence, Goodstein said widespread consensus among climate scientists, along with mounting evidence, is making global warming as a consequence of human action increasingly difficult to ignore.

"It's going to keep getting hotter, year in, year out," Goodstein said. "It's going to be increasingly difficult for people to be confused about this."

The evidence, Goodstein said, is not just measurable by the thermometer. Species are migrating, seas are rising and ice is melting.

"The impacts are already here, and it's going to get worse," Goodstein said. "At the low end, it's a challenging, but manageable problem. At the high end, it becomes a challenge to civilization. It's a very extraordinary time that we're living in to really determine the future." . . .

While West Virginia has enjoyed a history of being an energy leader, it may not for long.

"You can't really say, you know, that because you're a leader in fossil fuel production, that you're going to be a leader in clean energy," Goodstein said. "There is not necessarily a link."

West Virginia's opportunities to lead in clean energy industry or in other any industry following a post-fossil fuel economy, he said, is determined by the creativeness and innovation of its business leaders and policymakers.

"Finding a way forward is really just a matter of business entrepreneurs and government policy makers looking for that new road and creating the clusters and innovation opportunities," Goodstein said. . . .

"This is a global problem," he said. "Everybody's got to lead – bottom line – or we don't solve the problem."

Time to get started.

We haven’t worried you into your cabin in the woods with your stockpiles of canned food lately, so here’s an update on where The Perfect Storm seems to be right now.

“Civilisation faces 'perfect storm of ecological and social problems'”

Hey!! Stop stealing our concepts!! You can probably tell from the way they misspelled civilization that the article is British (not that there’s anything wrong with that). It details the major flows of events rushing together pretty well, but the solutions they propose are arguable and certainly not going to happen. The idea of new institutional and behavior structures, though, is the only way for Corrections Sentencing to get through this with any hope for maxing out public safety given what we’ll have to work with.

"Water Management and Climate Change in Ancient Maya City"

Proof both that Perfect Storms have happened before and that other civilizations (with a “z”) have come up with ideas to deal with them. Of course, these were the Mayans, but everything worked for them, didn't it?

“Drought summit: Why not pipe the water from north to south?”

More British stuff, but reflective of the arguments (rhetorical and worse) that likely will dominate much of our national and regional politics and policy for the rest of our lives. We’ve heard bits and pieces of it already, Arizona wanting Great Lakes water, California wanting everybody’s, Georgia and Alabama going to court, Oklahoma water conservationists wanting to fight off Oklahoma fast-buck guys wanting to sell to north Texas, etc. It’s the future. And corrections sentencing won’t go unaffected.

“Motorists hit by record surge in gas prices”

In case you hadn’t noticed in your own facility and departmental budgets yet. (Keep in mind their totals of overall US daily usage for comparison with the stories we get on how much oil some source is going to add to the system, which needs to be replacing what’s being used at the same time.) And note below.

“Gas prices surging beyond $4 a gallon -- and they will go higher”

Not news if you read here regularly, but updates on refineries being closed and an add-on regarding the effect on elections if gasoline is $4 a gallon. And $5.

“JPM Hikes Crude Price Forecast, Sees $120 WTI By Election Time”

Part of the reason why, but we’ve noted here that the association between oil price and US gasoline price has been breaking down for a variety of reasons. Some even legitimate.

“Surging Energy Prices Are Already Taking A Toll On One Area Of The Market”

Primarily transportation. Although Office Services and Supplies and Environmental and Facilities Services are being hit, too. Not clear to us why, but that’s because we’re just corrections sentencing types. Any ideas, let us know.

“Confusing climate study actually makes strong case against tar sands — If we want to avoid catastrophic global warming”

Why the “oil shale will save us” talk actually points to more Perfect Storm.

"Is there really so much shale gas in the ground?"

And it looks like there’s only about a tenth of what the original estimates (put forward by natural gas companies and their media buddies) said. From Foreign Policy, pure Establishment, not some leftie source.

“Preparing for the flood: Visualizations help communities plan for sea-level rise”

Think it’s possible state and local governments will get to pony up some funds for this stuff? Think it’s possible that those dollars won’t be made up to offset costs to things like, oh, corrections sentencing?

“Rising tide of sea-level warnings drowned out by wave of shoreline development”

Or we could just not pay attention until the water is waist-high. We’re good at that. (Not that Northrup Grumman actually has to deal with reality, not ideology and wish-fulfillment, to stay in business and what side on these issues it’s come down on. Like national militaries and insurance companies in the US and Europe.)

“Climate analysts are from Mars, climate activists are from Venus … but they both live on Earth”

A good analysis of how analysts have to be reality-based but activists have to scare people, making the logic of their arguments differ despite being on the same team. Sound like any other policy area you know? Then maybe it has applicability there, too, along with how we might work together.

“As Everything Disconnects And Everything Is Soaring, Morgan Stanley Issues A Warning”

Regarding the economic leg of The Storm, this blog post notes that the funding of “quantitative easing” has pumped commodity prices way high (don’t use the “speculation” word, though, because economists say that can’t really happen). And Morgan Stanley is looking at past similar situations and not feeling really giddy about it.

“America's coming homeless surge”

And, as government assistance goes away, the problems it’s been holding back come forward. Like this one.  Shouldn’t have any impact on corrections sentencing, though, should it?

But as we emphasize here, we’re not about wringing our hands and giving up. Here are just a few sites beyond those in our Outside the Silo links on the right that can help us/you with ideas for how to deal with The Perfect Storm as it hits you and your agencies/facilities.

Water: Use It Wisely

American Water Works Association

Water Conserve

American Community Gardening Association

Community Garden Coalition

The last is here in my town, Columbia, MO, and I may even start liking rutabaga. May.

 

Inside the Silo News

“80 Percent Of Male State Inmates Released In 2005 Arrested Again By 2010”

Connecticut.  Okay, this other study showed that, in our 75 largest counties in May 2002 at least, out of 100 people arrested, 65 were adults.  Of those, 25 cases got dropped.  Of the 40 cases going forward, 11 were acquitted, meaning that our system in those jurisdictions did not find actual guilt in over 55% of arrests.  I've seen presentations finding the arrest to dropped charges percentages ranging from 10% to 67%.  And yet, as this story shows once again, we as researchers and practitioners insist on considering mere arrest, which is due to finite resources in itself highly selective even before human bias, department policies, news headlines, outright corruption (think Tula), etc., decide who gets picked up and who doesn’t, as proof of a new crime.  “Innocent before proven guilty” much?   I know it’s a result of the early criminal justice research being dependent more on access to arrest data rather than other data, which isn’t as true any more, and “the light’s better over here.”  Please don’t tell me about the correlation between arrests and later convictions or incarcerations unless you’re prepared to distinguish how much of that is “arrest is proof of individual inherent criminality” and how much “arrest and most contact with the crim just system is criminogenic.”  It's not that we can't use arrest data if that's all we have, but we have much more now than we used to and so did the researchers in this story.  Yeah, yeah, I know one pathetic little blogger won’t make a difference in the face of all the sunk costs and reputations staked on this unfortunate academic support of negation of a fundamental principle of our constitutional rights, but please pay more attention in the story to the actual reincarceration rate of about 50% after 5 years, which is better proof of new criminality and pretty comparable to other states.  But the 80% will undoubtedly sell more papers and get picked up by more blowdried news readers on tv.

“GA Georgia Considers Reforms to Reduce Prison Population, Costs”

Another reform based on presumed savings from preempted prison spending that would have to occur in The Perfect Storm.  What makes this one different than Oklahoma’s, as we’ve detailed here, is requirement of an oversight council to monitor implementation, improvement of the state’s electronic criminal justice info systems, and mandated reporting of performance measures to the council for evaluation purposes.  None of it will be meaningful, however, if the state flatlines or worse on budget numbers so that those “savings” don’t actually happen and front-loading doesn't pay off.  In Missouri’s reform effort, the proposals required documented savings before spending happened, but no indication in the article if that’s what’s happening in GA.  The article is interesting because it outright says that more effective reform would close prisons and legalize marijuana to cut populations and to jumpstart budget reductions.  So, obviously, not the mainstream media.  In any case, a better effort than Oklahoma, not likely as good apparently as Missouri, but at least movement of Corrections Sentencing Reform 1.0 toward 2.0.  In small steps, but that’s how all great journeys begin.  And disasters. (h/t Real Cost of Prisons blog)

“Most Oregon prison deaths unreported to public; 79 prisoners died in custody on 2010-2011”

Not uncommon among state DOCs not to report every death, but that info is usually available in state reports or on request, so the headline isn’t as dramatic as it sounds.

“Billionaire George Soros donates $500,000 to three-strikes drive”

One of three contributors putting over a million bucks into the California campaign so far.  With the corrections officers’ union not as outfront as they have been on the other side, who knows?  Might pass something this time.

“Oregon budget writers, Gov. John Kitzhaber dismiss suggestion of multiple prison closures”

The state’s new DOC director talks reality, possible prison closures to meet awful budget future there, so key legislator labels her “alarmist” and the governor “all but disavowed” her.  Notice the “all but.”  Oregon will close prisons at some point.  It’s too far into The Perfect Storm already.  Sometimes “alarms” are useful things.  Just depends on how clueful key legislators become and how much their delay will cost the state.

Outside the Silo News

Energy Bulletin update

One of your very best sources for info on The Perfect Storm has some good posts up right now on why alternative fuels aren’t going to come riding in to save the day, meaning carbon-based fuels will remain in use for the foreseeable future (and why you should plan your facilities accordingly) and the latest on studies of the uses of fresh water around the world and here at home.

“Texas Water District Acts to Slow Depletion of the Ogallala Aquifer”

And, to drive the latter point home, news at National Geographic on how Texas is waking up to the crashing of The Perfect Storm right on top of them.  And discouraging news about how much more it and the other states using the aquifer have been drawing it down in recent years, despite (or because of) the crushing drought there that is predicted to continue.

“Will Hurricanes Topple U.S. Wind Turbines?”

Nice example of how The Perfect Storm has to be looked at systemically and not in the individual silos of economy, climate, energy, water, food, etc.  Press on this end of the toothpaste tube and you get alternative energy systems to deal with escalating production costs of carbon-based fuels.  But the bulge on the other end is the weather you get from the already emitted fossil fuels, whacking down the equal and opposite reaction.  This does not mean all is hopeless, just that we have to think systems, not one fire at a time.  Hard, but not impossible, but time to get started.