--Mike Connelly

I know I can be accused right now of being a Colorado groupie for all the things that state is doing to address The Perfect Storm, not just in Corrections Sentencing but overall, but I’m willing to bear it (it would be nice if they’d give me a t-shirt, though).  This story is an excellent example, the Governor’s speech to a “State of the Rockies” conference (not the ballteam) the other day.  He not only recognizes that Australia already has been dealing with what we will have to and has provided us ready-made models, he says flat-out, “Our self-discipline in the amount of water we use is going to be the foundation of everything we will do.”  Yep.  Can’t be summed up any better.  Also can’t think of any other governor in any other state that gets it as well.

You might not know it but this story about researcher finding an insecticide that might be responsible for the truly scary bee hive/society collapses of the last few years might be the best news you’ll ever hear.  Why?

At least a third of U.S. honeybee colonies have died out in the past six years. “The significance of bees to agricultural cannot be understated,” Lu said. They pollinate about one third of U.S. crop species, including almonds, apples, grapes, soybeans, cotton, and others, the failure of which could lead not only to food shortages, but also to large economic hits for farmers—and consumers.

That news comes at the same time as this story of growing food shortages globally and the threat of social and political unrest that already toppled Egypt’s government over the issues last year.

Of course, Bayer, the maker of the insecticide (and the former provider of the baby aspirin I will now buy from others), assures us that the study is bogus according to its studies.  And, if you buy that one, there is a department in OK that will tell you that the drug courts it both evaluates and advocates for in the state legislature are just peachy keen despite the one independent evaluation of them finding such claims “excessive” that I’ll be glad to sell you.

Think bees are scary?  What about the Amazon Rainforest, seeing moisture levels being drawn away by the Atlantic as it warms, making it more susceptible to fires?  Oh, well, that’s far away.  No need for us to . . .  what? “Dry, windy conditions fuel wildfires in East” . . . Never mind.

This story reminds us that those of us (us included) who focus solely on gasoline prices affecting transportation and the price of all the things transported are making a big mistake.  We need to be stressing the increasing price of diesel more since its impact is even greater in many ways.  So we will now.  And it's already over $4 a gallon.  Meanwhile, this story alerts us to a probable 6% higher price of gasoline for the summer.  Got that built into your budgets, do you?

Finally, let’s end this with some good news, to demonstrate that, yes, The Perfect Storm won’t be fun but also, yes, there are things we can do.  This is a very important story on those “food deserts” in poor communities that we’ve discussed regularly now, especially since those communities tend to coincide with the areas where we send the bulk of our releasees.  Specifically, it details SNAP Gardens, which isn’t just the growing but also the whole network of credits, distribution, and partnerships with non-profits that will be needed to ensure adequate food for those residents.  We’ve mentioned here the existing and needed programs to get offenders trained to participate in these efforts, to help them rebuild constructive lives in and for their communities rather than just going back to the same old crap that got them with us to start with.  Stories like these really do make you hopeful that people aren’t just paying attention but are taking the necessary actions to build the processes and structures to confront the challenges.  (Oh, and you don’t have land, but you have a major rooftop area, say, like an abandoned shopping center?  Maybe you could find out this Brooklyn project, too.)

See?  You can have a good week.  So do.

--Mike Connelly

No, not an ad for Red Bull or those oddly scary little bottles at the counter at your favorite convenience store.  Just some references to stories over the weekend that point to the energy future we're facing, gasoline in particular but cutting across all the energy sources that we have to use in corrections despite their costs and the cuts they force us to make in the other areas of our budgets, which in turn should affect sentencing, but doesn't always.  Even Newsweek and one of its Beltway pundits have figured out that high oil prices may be a major part of our future, simply because the oil producing nations need them to be just to balance their own budgets, pay off their own people, and stave off their own shortages.  The writers speculating about the impact of speculators on prices are probably right that commodities like oil are a bubble waiting to burst, but, when they talk about prices therefore dropping steeply when (not "if" anymore) it occurs, they rarely figure in the absolute necessity these nations have to keep prices up, perhaps even by cutting back on supplies to offset the speculation losses.  We're definitely not oil price experts here, but it doesn't take Stephen Hawking to see that the volatility all this implies will not bode well for corrections budgets in the near term.  Or long term until we adjust to different energy sources and deliveries.  (And we promise not to say "bode well" again for a long time.)

Then you have Reuters coming along proving the point with this article on how the Saudis have decided that oil under $100 a barrel just isn't in their interest anymore, and the article gives you a pretty good overview of why.  Of course, the impact on state and local budgets and corrections spending won't just be affected by energy costs.  Overall economic growth is affected (duh, we know), giving that spending the double whammy.  Higher energy spending, lower appropriations, less money for correcting.  Just to end on a cheery note, let's look at this article about the projection of ups and downs for gasoline prices for the coming year.  $4 a gallon by summer, some areas hitting close to the magic $5, before dropping [sic] to the high $3's a gallon by winter.  (Okay, we lied about "cheery.")  The point is, you got that figured into your budget?  State policymakers making promises about increased spending in some areas now that state budgets don't look as dire as they have (except where they do)?

Hopefully none of this is news to you.  Hopefully you've already accepted that your corrections and sentencing future is one of constant adjustments and triaging at lower levels of funding (either in absolute dollars or what you have left after mandates and rising costs), varying a bit in the ups and downs but constant in the overall direction.  What's left is to get the planning prepared as best as possible and to realize that new futures require the  new ideas and actions opening up (see post below).  Aren't you lucky that you've got a new place to come share ideas about that?

--Mike Connelly

Great line, isn't it?  Wished we'd said it, instead of this article.  

As we talk here about trying to prep our corrections efforts to minimize the impact of higher future energy costs so as to keep budgets in line as much as possible to maximize public safety, we may occasionally give the impression that the path to those higher costs will be both straight and immediate.  The article gives you a good example of why while the path will in fact be higher overall, it will also feature switchbacks and dramatic ups and downs, not just one regular increase after another.  Because of speculators, elections and the . . . uh, leadership that occurs, the changing internal politics of oil producer nations (who are starting to figure out, "hmm . . . that Egypt guy went down, my peons are griping about things so we need to buy them off more, our own oil needs are increasing, we've got spoiled grandkids, . . . maybe going full tilt on production's not the smartest thing in the world regardless of current price . . . ."), and the tendency of higher gasoline prices to make economies go bust and thus bring down demand for it, we're on a roller coaster, not a rocket, as the author makes clear.

. . . If one does the arithmetic using the average price jump of 83 percent, futures prices could be expected to top out in the vicinity of $4.46 a gallon next spring. Adding in the additional 60 cents to get the gasoline taxed and to the nozzle of your pump, we could theoretically be paying a national average on the order of $5.00 a gallon before the 4th of July. This of course assumes that nothing bad happens in the Middle East that restricts or seriously threatens the flow of oil exports and sends prices much higher. . . .

If the price spike of 2008 obtains, $4+ gasoline is the breaking point for many Americans. Driving will drop, new car sales will plummet, trucks and airplanes will be parked, and with them a big piece of the American economy will grind to a halt. Four years ago, the drop in gasoline consumption was so sharp that it sent prices down $2.40 cents a gallon to an end of the year low of $1.65 thereby freeing up billions of dollars that were going into gas tanks in July and saving the economy from much more serious trouble. . . .

We also have a looming refinery problem in the U.S. and Europe coming up this summer. As demand for gasoline has dropped, refining has become less profitable, causing refiners to shutter or if possible sell some of their less-profitable refineries -- some 2.6 million barrels a day (b/d) of refining capacity has been closed in the advanced economies. In Europe, the continent's largest independent refiner is shutting down three refineries halting about 250,000 b/d of refining. In the northeastern U.S. however, the situation is much worse. Three large Pennsylvania refineries, which can refine 550,000 b/d and which constitute half the refining capacity on the East coast, are for sale. Two have already been shut down and the third is due for closure if a buyer cannot be found. While this loss of US refining capacity can be made up by increased shipments of refined products from Europe and the Gulf Coast, there will likely be added costs and delays that could result in shortages and higher prices. . . . 

Makes your head spin, doesn't it?  So, making exact timing predictions about these things is silly.  But the trend line, as the last several years' flat-line supplies face growing demands from the developing world even if the developed world is cutting back, makes higher prices for energy and our lifeblood, gasoline, very likely.  Not prepping for how we can cut our costs in those areas and become more self-sufficient in our departments and facilities is even sillier.

Now go read the post and see what mischief I may have done by pulling out the selected quotes.  You know that's been on your mind.

One of the areas we’ll be following here will be energy stocks and prices, most specifically what a gallon of gas costs, now and in the near future.  This report tells us that not only are gasoline prices higher nationally than normal right now but that we’re looking at $4 a gallon this spring, even without the fireworks threatened in the Straits of Hormuz.  

Media attention is starting to focus on gasoline prices in the US. NY futures have risen 30 cents a gallon since mid-December and 10 cents a gallon in the last week. Average retail gasoline is now going for $3.37 a gallon which is the highest on record for this time of the year. Leaving aside the danger of supply interruptions which would send prices much higher, experienced observers are saying the US gasoline prices will average between $3.75 and $4.25 a gallon this year with $4 gasoline expected in the spring. As we saw in 2008, prices at this level will clearly cause serious economic damage with or without economic contagion from the EU.

Depending on how much you rely on transport of materials, food, inmates, etc., this will have more or less impact on your facility and department budgets.  We’re betting “more,” since it’s highly unlikely your legislators built it into your budgets or listened to you when you predicted it.  While you have a pretty good idea of what prolonged higher gasoline prices (and other energy supplies) will have, in this list of stories you’ll find one on the impact of energy costs on “just in time” deliveries, the norm these days.  Caution:  it looks a little like you did when you woke up January 1 morning . . . uh, afternoon.  In any case, this is our future, and we need to start working it into regular operational planning.

The UK could stand "at most a week" of disruption if a natural or man-made disaster struck before severe problems, economic and social, that would bring chaos to the country, according to a new report from the international affairs thinktank Chatham House.

The authors blame a complacent reliance on the globalised economy and the widespread adoption of "just-in-time" business models that stress lean, ultra-efficient operations with little slack built in for any unforeseen circumstances or stock held in reserve.

With public services and businesses being run as if constantly in crisis mode, even in normal circumstances, there is little flexibility when a real crisis strikes.

The problem is compounded as national and local governments are underprepared for disasters, despite a growing range of intensifying threats and recent experiences around the world, from the Icelandic ash cloud to the nuclear crisis in Japan.

"Slow-motion" crises such as water shortages, resource scarcity and the impact of climate change also present a range of new difficulties that will put added strain on the public and private sectors, they say.
Beyond a one-week disruption, "costs can escalate rapidly once transport networks (or major production centres) are disrupted for more than a few days", according to the report, entitled "Preparing for high-impact, low-probability events", from the Royal Institute of International Affairs. As the economic impact is felt, vital infrastructure, from food and water supplies to energy and communications network, could fall under threat, it says.

Bernice Lee, lead author of the report, said: "The frequency of high-impact, low-probability events in the last decade signals the emergence of a new 'normal'. Apparent one-off high-profile crises such as 9/11, Hurricane Katrina, the Macondo oil spill and the Japanese earthquake and tsunami were all mega-disasters… marking the beginning of a crisis trend."

While you're thinking on this, what plans do you have if gasoline gets to $5 a gallon?  Associated energy costs?  What planning is going on out there?

Bueller?