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Everything listed under: sentencing planning

  • New Stuff from The Sentencing Project

    --Mike Connelly

    Some of the most important and relevant data and research in Corrections Sentencing and its reform by 2020 has come/is coming from The Sentencing Project (disclaimer: I’ve worked with one staffer there at a different organization and currently work with another on a different project so, yeah, I’m biased, whaddya gunna do about it?). Since we have another week of research abstracts that threaten to blow out our ISP, we’ve decided to break out three abstracts up right now at NCJRS from The Project for your separate consideration. To prove we’re not completely gooey about them, we will note that none of the reports discussed below really deal with what we call The Perfect Storm, although that’s true of everyone, the Reform 1.0 folks, the critics of the Reform 1.0 folks, etc. Before you read these pieces, we would ask you to drop just below the post to the last one from yesterday, our weekly Perfect Storm news update, and frame in your mind the world that will result from those events, the direct and indirect effects on Corr Sent budgets, operations, staff, and futures. Then view the reports, and all the reports on the Corr Sent future in, well, the future, from that framework. See what we mean? That said, there’s more likely to still occur as predicted by the projections put forward in the first piece than in most other reports you’ll run across. You’ll find the full reports at the Sentencing Project website so go give them the hits. It makes them feel good, and isn’t that what life’s about?


    To Build a Better Criminal Justice System: 25 Experts Envision the Next 25 Years of Reform

    Marc Mauer; Kate Epstein
    The Sentencing Project

    These 25 essays contain the perspectives of leading thinkers in the field of criminal justice, including academics, practitioners, and policy advocates. Topics covered include: evidence-based approaches to reducing institutional populations; why a reliance on fiscal arguments has little basis for success absent a shift in the political environment in which these issues are addressed; public education strategies designed to encourage a more rational public debate on criminal justice; assessments about the potential leadership roles to be played by policymakers, practitioners, leaders in disadvantaged communities, and individuals who have been through the criminal justice system; which platforms best convey convincing and comprehensive messages about the need for reform; disseminating information using the success stories of recent years; how to engage in ongoing research to identify strategies for change; the strategic role of race in addressing criminal justice policy; the need to focus on issues specific to women; how to frame juvenile justice policy under a rubric of a “my child” testing that promotes compassionate and effective treatment for all; how to focus on prevention, adopting a human rights framework for justice reform; and finally, a wholesale reconsideration of national drug policy in order to reverse the harmful impacts of recent decades. Also included are commentators from abroad who assess the role of the United States in comparison to, and as influential in, developments in other nations.

    State of Sentencing 2012: Developments in Policy and Practice
    Nicole D. Porter
    The Sentencing Project

    This report presents an overview of recent policy reforms (2012) in the areas of sentencing, probation and parole, collateral consequences, and juvenile justice. Seven States - Alabama, California, Missouri, Massachusetts, Kansas, Louisiana, and Pennsylvania - revised mandatory penalties for certain offenses, including crack cocaine possession and drug-offense enhancements. Seven States - Colorado, Delaware, Georgia, Hawaii, Louisiana, Missouri, and Pennsylvania - expanded the use of earned time for eligible prisoners and limited the use of incarceration for probation and parole violations. Connecticut abolished the death penalty, becoming the 17th State to eliminate death as a criminal sanction. Two States - Louisiana and Oklahoma - authorized or expanded mechanisms to modify sentences post-conviction. These policies allow prosecutors and judges to reduce prison sentences of individuals who meet eligibility requirements. Three States - California, Louisiana, and Pennsylvania - authorized sentencing relief for certain individuals sentenced as juveniles to life without parole. Changes in criminal justice policy were made for various reasons, including an interest in managing prison capacity. Legislators have shown are interested in enacting reforms that recognize that the Nation’s scale of incarceration has produced diminishing returns for public safety. Consequently, legislators and other stakeholders have prioritized implementing policies that provide a more balanced approach to public safety. The evolving framework has focused on reducing returns to prison for technical violations, expanding alternatives to prison for persons convicted of low-level offenses, and authorizing earned release for prisoners who complete certain rehabilitation programs. Despite the reforms noted in this report, the United States continues to have the highest rate of incarceration in the world. Lawmakers who are concerned with the use of incarceration should prioritize addressing policies that trigger a prison sentence and lengths of stay.

    Too Good to be True: Private Prisons in America
    Cody Mason
    The Sentencing Project

    Results show that the available evidence does not point to any substantial benefits to privatizing prisons. Although there are instances where private prisons result in small savings, the structure and demands of for-profit prisons appear to produce a negative overall impact on services. The available data challenges the claim that economic benefits of private contracting are cost saving. Even if private prisons can manage to hold down costs, this success often comes at the detriment of services provided. Nationwide, public funds for prisons are already limited leaving little excess spending that can be cut. Therefore, private prisons must make cuts in important high-cost areas such as staff, training, and programming to create savings; companies are pressured to maintain low overhead costs and provide less direct oversight. Finally, private prison companies’ dependence on ensuring a large prison population to maintain profits provides inappropriate incentives to lobby government officials for policies that will place more people in prison. This is evidenced by the creation and coordination of model legislation through conservative lobbying groups, as well as in the political contributions and lobbying efforts of individual companies. This effort to increase reliance on incarceration comes at a time where America’s rate of imprisonment is the highest in the world and when the prison population is far beyond the point of diminishing returns in terms of public safety.


  • Guest Series on Aging Inmates--Part One

    An Occasional Series

    --Mike Connelly

    We’ve talked a lot here about aging inmate populations, their special needs and management, and their impact on whether prison diversion programs actually result in correctional savings as we sell to policymakers. Recently I had a student who did a paper on the aging inmate which, while not comprehensive or without faults, did a nice job, I thought, capturing much of what we need to talk about in a readable format easily broken into blog post junks.

    So with his permission we will excerpt from his paper over the next few weeks where space beckons/permits. (Endnotes have been omitted but, if you want to know references, just e-mail us.) Those of you already way too aware of the problems associated with this special population will nevertheless enjoy the reminders, we think, while those way too unaware can be brought up to speed fast. So, without further ado, whatever “ado” is, everything you ever wanted to know . . . well, enough for now anyway.

    “The Elderly Inmate”—Leonard Webb, guest poster
    PART ONE

    A man sits in a wheelchair; his sallow skin sagging and thinning gray hair sparsely covers his head, meet George Sanges. Sanges has a debilitating neurological condition and takes an array of medications twice daily. Sanges is also an inmate in the Men’s State Prison in Georgia. His condition has deteriorated since he began serving a 15-year sentence in 2005 for aggravated assault against his wife. Sanges was rushed to the hospital twice during his incarceration for heart problems. Among the 10 largest prison systems in the nation Georgia spends around $8,500 annually for medical costs for prisoners older than 65 and about $950 for younger inmates. Men’s State Prison is home to the greatest number of aged prisoners in Georgia. Men’s State Prison looks like any other prison from the outside; however, on the inside gang fights are rare. The inmates spend time playing checkers instead of lifting weights. There is still prisoner conflict; however, those consist of bickering and catfights waged from wheelchair seats. There are no prison bunks; instead plastic wrapped hospital beds occupy every corner of the room where the inmates sleep.

    There is a common misconception that most people in prison are young. The whole of the criminal justice population, including those incarcerated and on community programs, such as probation is aging more quickly than the nation’s population. Prior to incarceration many inmates behavior put them at risk for health problems. Many arrive with a history of drug abuse and high risk sexual activities. In addition to inmates entering prison with previous behavioral risk factors often they have had limited or no access to health care prior to entering the system. Data from three of the nation’s largest prison systems indicate that elderly inmates are commonly transported outside prison walls for costly health care treatment for events related to chronic diseases, thus placing additional stress on already limited state budgets. Officials estimate the nation’s costs of housing and caring for prisoners over 50 is $16 billion annually. In 2010 the state of Texas paid $4,853 per elderly offender for care compared with $795 for inmates under 55 for a total of $545 million. Although elderly inmates comprise 8% of Texas’ inmate population they are responsible for 30% of prisoner’s health care costs.

    One may assume the prison environment is naturally stressful, perhaps some facilities more than others a maximum security institution compared to a minimum security, for example. Most certainly even a big strapping man in his prime would find it difficult to adjust to prison life. Suppose the individual is past his prime and suffers from a debilitating disease. His stress level would be greater; therefore the effects would be greater.

    The nation’s prisons are overflowing with inmates serving long sentences that guarantee they will reach old age while incarcerated. Studies suggest that older prisoners endure unique stress and trauma that younger inmates do not. Older inmates fear victimization from younger stronger inmates, and dying in prison. These fears are not unfounded as in 2004 2,019 prisoners 55 and older died in prison. Many studies have been conducted on stress and trauma in regard to prisoners. Not much has been done in regard to the subject specifically as it relates to older prisoners.

    America is experiencing an unprecedented growth in the elderly population. One implication of this trend is elderly inmates. Particularly the costs to keep these elderly inmates incarcerated. The baby Boomers are in their 50s and 60s, chronologically someone in this age range is not necessarily “old”; typically this is around the time they begin to experience health issues associated with aging. A 2003 report from the Georgia department of Corrections showed that 31% of older prisoners have no physical limitations, compared to 83% in the 15 – 29 cohorts. Older inmates present unique challenges for the correctional system, particularly in regard to their health care needs. In many cases inmates are not eligible for Medicare or Medicaid and as a result the costs for their health care and as a result the states are left to pick up the tab on their health care. Many of these cash-strapped states are already cutting budgets. In 1980 Oklahoma had 85 inmates who were age 50 and older, that figure that has ballooned to 3,952 in 2010. That figure is expected to increase 48% by fiscal year 2013.

    Previously prison management issues focused mainly on separating violent inmates from the nonviolent ones and programs that helped the inmate in the transition back into society. Because of the tremendous increase in the numbers of older inmates, prison management is far more complex and costly. Prison administrators will have to incorporate a better understanding of the aging process in a prison environment as inmates’ age faster than those not incarcerated. Prison managers must also understand there may be legal ramifications with regard to chronic ailments common in the elderly, such as Alzheimer’s disease and their related complications. The Rehabilitation Act of 1973 and the Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990 (ADA) prohibits discrimination against disabled individuals (including incarcerated individuals). Failure of prisons to comply with these acts could result federal courts ordering prison facilities to accommodate prisoners with special needs.

    END PART ONE


  • Not All DAs Are SAAAs

    --Mike Connelly

    When we talk about prosecutors here, we tend to focus on the self-appointed archangel (SAAA) ones, doing God’s work in their own minds if most definitely not in anywhere else. This is because their “smite the eevvvillllll” (as they define eevvvillll, not the public, not the crime victims, not God from what’s been written about Him) attitudes have fouled up so much serious work at maximizing the matching of public resources and public safety over the last several decades. The DAs who adopt this persona are personally responsible for the additional crime and victimization that has occurred as a result of applying our resources on less public safety-effective incarceration rather than the more public safety-effective alternatives that research and evaluation have shown to be better.

    But as we’ve noted before as well, if not as often, there are truly remarkable in a good way prosecutors out there as well, and it’s been our fortune as well as honor to work with them on serious remedies of public safety issues. The problem with the commissions, workgroups, “exec sessions,” legislative hearings, etc., that insist on having prosecutors participate is that the organizers either aren’t aware of the two distinct groups or aren’t really serious about reform but instead just checking boxes on process measures for their final reports. In either case you can end up with the predictable “stake holders” who deliberately politic those bodies into only what they and their constituents will allow, IOW, the status quo, plus or minus minor adjustments. Our criticism isn’t of having prosecutors per se on these bodies; it’s about not taking care to get those actually on Planet Reality and concerned about public welfare/safety when those bodies are formed. And when we get a chance to laud the latter, we have to take it, and this piece over at The Crime Report right now shows us a true “angelic” DA at their best.

    We don’t agree with everything the guy says, of course (he basically makes no adjustments for the selection problem we just outlined, for example), but his orientation is dead on. We’ll let you (as in “DO IT NOW”) click the link for the details, but this California DA is proposing a proactive county-by-county approach to addressing sentencing reform that mirrors at least the Corr Sent Reform 1.0 direction, which we criticize for its inadequacies, not for its mission. He gets that public safety is the desired goal, not reduction of costs or incarceration rates, which might get your antennae up except he’s not talking about blowing up populations in prisons and/or jails.

    San Fran, which he serves after previously being police chief there (a multi-tasker deluxe!!), has some of the most notable front-end, back-end, side-end, end-end programs in the nation so you know his constituency is a tad different from the usual, but that allows him and them to experiment with and expand options as a kind of laboratory for the rest of us. His specific proposal is to repeat sentencing commissions in all counties, which we used to think had a chance at working but no longer do. They in general had their chance and their time came and went. However, in an environment supportive of change and with participants who come to the table with common ends and working only on divergent means like he has there, sentencing commissions could still be workable for at least 1.0 “inside the silo” reforms. That he thinks the other counties in his state and the rest of this nation are like his just shows he doesn’t get around much.

    The part of his proposal that IS possible to transmit elsewhere is his call for data-driven, evidence-based policies on recidivism reduction, including incorporation of risk/need assessment to drive the sentencing stage of the process toward later successful reentry of the offender when the sentence is completed. The true innovation of what he is doing there and the reason it's different from the general 1.0 proposals is creation of what he calls an “alternative sentence planner” in DA offices like his own:


    . . . The ASP evaluates cases to review what is known about the risk level and protective factors of the offenders and then makes sentencing recommendations that will reduce the likelihood that the person reoffends.

    In addition, the ASP acts as an investigator, conducting site visits to programs to determine their effectiveness in reducing recidivism, and also provides training for all staff so that the recidivism reduction approach can be integrated into the fabric of all case prosecutions.

    This is high order stuff that other “angelic” DAs, like Milwaukee’s, for example, could copy and have immediate impact with. We are skeptical of widespread adoption of this approach in the Reform 1.0 Dollar Menu items because it too often flies against office traditions, won’t normally be valued by judges even if DAs do it for the same traditional reasons, can be turned to gaming and undermining easily (thereby undercutting the legit uses of these instruments elsewhere in the process), and diverts analysis from the possible applications of aggregate instrument scores for the overall population to identify which sentences seem related to the lowest recidivism scores by risk/need levels. However, those outcomes are most likely in the badly homogenized jurisdictions not all focused on the common goals of public safety maxing and recidivism reduction. In a jurisdiction like his, you’d likely have far fewer problems with the issues described above.

    More proof that this guy isn’t SAAA? How about this?

    As law enforcement leaders, we must have the courage to face the fact that locking everyone up is not winning. Recognizing that jails and prisons are not the answer to every crime or every offender is a paradigm shift that flies in the face of assumptions that we have built upon for many years.

    Yet by grounding our work in a commitment to improving public safety, prosecutors can lead the way in reforming our sentencing laws and practices.

    From his lips to other DAs ears. The one thing they have in their favor over the SAAAs is that, if they can definitively show better results for public safety and the expenditure of resources to attain them, especially as The Perfect Storm continues its damage in the future, more and more jurisdictions that might have been skeptical or clueless will find the San Fran approach more beneficial. There’s no way the SAAAs will go quietly. They can’t. They depend too much on continual crime and victims for everything they do, say, are. But they don’t control the resources or the public demands. The “angelic” DAs, even if a minority in their profession, who are successful in the ways this guy outlines, will be whom we turn to and will dominate the Reform 1.0 future in The Storm. Hopefully this guy will still be in office and available to lead.



  • Your Management Articles This Week March 8, 2013

    --Mike Connelly

    Not a boffo week for management articles, but there are some generally useful ones below and some that might be more specific to particular readers. The last one on “value-cost” leveraging may at least give you something to talk about over that pitcher or keg this evening. You know how your friends love it when you bring up academic articles from your line of work. Or substitute the “super password” one for Pictionary!! (Or if your eye gets captured by someone special at the bar this evening, bring up the question of the first article. The response will be memorable. Beyond words. We promise.)

    “Evaluation or Research? Is the Distinction Important?” (hint: yes.)
    “Slow Down, You Think Too Fast”
    “How Good Are You at Ditching Distractions?”
    “How to Lead Effectively: 6 Strategies”
    “Managing the Mess: Go Directly to C”
    (good idea of Corrections Sentencing reform)
    “Why Employee Development Is Important but Neglected”
    “Meet the New Boss, Meaner Than the Old Boss?”
    (please do not shoot this messenger)
    “Three Rules for Finding a Career That Makes You Happy”
    “Be Prepared to Answer These Questions During an Interview”
    “How to Get Your Way”
    “How to Say ‘No’ to Your Boss”
    (we’re not responsible for anything that results from this)
    “A Simple Way to Create a Super Strong Password”
    “Finding the Sweet Spot of Value and Cost”

    Have a good weekend. Remember your Guinness. It’s Good For You!


  • That Implementation Thing Again

    --Mike Connelly

    You may (or may not) wonder why we’re so skeptical at times regarding prison population projections and basing policy decisions on them. Part of it’s that I’ve done them and seen them misused for purposes good and bad. Part of it is that I’ve seen policymakers make decisions, such as increasing bedspace either through more building or more diversion from prison, and then practitioners, seeing the empty beds, change their practices from the ways they had been modeled in the projections. And by “change their practices,” I mean “grab the chance to pump people into prison that they hesitated about before because the bedspace wasn’t available.” Ironically, the first place I heard of this happening was TX, where the state in the 1990s built new prisons based on projected need, believing that would have them well prepped for years into the future. However, abrakadapra!!, the beds filled within a year or so instead. Why? Well, “if you build it, they will revoke.” P&P officers, seeing the empty beds now available, started hammering their revocators (there’s a name for a rock band!!) more than they had in the data used to build the model on which the prison building was based. In OK right now, projected bedspace and reported “savings” are based in part on a constant list of 85% crimes (offenses for which the offender must serve 85% of the sentence before getting credits toward release); however, the state’s self-proclaimed archangel DAs are reportedly working at expanding that list of offenses so that many offenders who might be affected by the recent reforms [sic] won’t have them available. Voila!, the projections are suddenly wrong.

    Grits for Breakfast blog shows us how Texans are apparently the only people who are allowed to mess with Texas. By not revoking parolees as much and a few other reforms forced on the legislature by the House Speaker saying “no more prisons” (a part of the Corr Sent Reform 1.0 package rarely mentioned elsewhere), the state did see a slight percentage drop in its prison population, which was apparently waving a red cape in front of the state’s self-proclaimed archangel DAs who kept felony conviction levels relatively constant over the same period that arrests were dropping precipitously. IOW, why try these lesser amounts as misdemeanors or let them go when we’ve got bedspace freeing up? As a result, the state Legislative Budget Board projects that this Reform 1.0 success story will see its prison populations begin increasing again after 2014.

    We’ve been critical of Reform 1.0 efforts in large part because they ignore the history and players in the states making the efforts and end up overlooking the very definite structuring that will have to be done to prevent the gaming that we’re talking about above once the spotlights on the policy have been turned off. As we’ve noted, policy isn’t policy until it’s implemented, and simply getting a bill passed is a very superficial measure of reform success. If the implementation hasn’t been thought through and adequately provided for, the most likely outcome will be something quite different from what the press conferences hailed. Oklahoma left evaluation of its reform’s success in the hands of one of the major players who is unlikely to find himself a failure and it did nothing to verify that the upfront assessment it extolled would even be considered at sentencing and not gamed if it were. North Carolina, like Oklahoma, failed to guarantee adequate funding for the extended community supervision reforms that passed. Texas has now proved the lesson twice. The odds are pretty good it will get more chances.

    (Speaking of odds, what do you think put as the over/under on the number of years before South Dakota, whose governor hailed Texas as the model he wanted his Reform 1.0 effort to emulate, is back at it? Past experience, I’d take 6 but The Perfect Storm is getting worse so we might end up over the actual.)

     

  • "Climate Change Won't Wait"

    --Mike Connelly

    We frequently talk here about the difference between arguing over whether Fun-Yuns are better with Diet Dr. Pepper than Fritos and over whether climate change is happening. This piece, echoing this Perfect Storm news item from yesterday, makes the point for us so it’s not just the pajama guy saying it:


    Societal change usually happens slowly, even once it's clear there's a problem. That's because, in a country as big as the United States, public opinion moves in leisurely currents. Change often requires going up against powerful, established interests, and it can take decades for those currents to erode the foundations of our special-interest fortresses. Think civil rights, gay marriage, equal rights for women.

    Even facing undeniably real problems — say, discrimination against gay people — one can make the case that gradual change is the best option. Had some mythical liberal Supreme Court declared, in 1990, that gay marriage was now the law of the land, the backlash might have been swift and severe.

    With climate change, however, there simply isn't time to waste. It's not a fight, like gay marriage, between conflicting groups with conflicting opinions. It's a fight between human beings and physics. And physics is entirely uninterested in human timetables. Physics couldn't care less if precipitous action raises gas prices or damages the coal industry in swing states. It couldn't care less whether putting a price on carbon slowed the pace of development in China or made agribusiness less profitable.

    Physics is implacable. It takes the carbon dioxide we produce and translates it into heat, which causes ice to melt and oceans to rise and storms to gather. And unlike other problems, the less you do, the worse it gets.

    We could postpone healthcare reform a decade, and the cost would be terrible — all the suffering not responded to over those 10 years. But when we returned to it, the problem would be about the same size. With climate change, unless we act fairly soon in response to physics' timetable, it will be too late.

    We would argue that the evidence for alternatives to prison for large numbers of identifiable offenders being more cost-effective for public safety, while not as clear for individual programs as for their aggregate, is well enough demonstrated to take the same position for moving from and closing down prisons as the basic instrument to deal with crime and victimization. Thus, the piece applies well to Corrections Sentencing policy, too.

    Where we would disagree with the writer is that the interconnections of the networked effects of climate change, energy change, and related water, food, infrastructure, health changes will zap public resources and attention so that, in fact, “when we returned to them,” social policy areas like ours, Education, Transportation, Mental Health and Substance Abuse WON’T “be about the same.” As we may have hinted from time to time. How could they be? Greater demands, fewer resources, more necessary and drastic triage, reduced policies and programs. The Perfect Storm changes change everything. We don't have time for "consensus" and allowing vested interests to veto needed reforms by holding stakes over any threats to their power, prestige, and personal egos. It’s time that people who get part of it get all of it. And that includes us.



  • Can't Make This Stuff Up

    --Mike Connelly

    On Friday we noted in the News a meeting of the Oklahoma panel to implement its recent minor Corr Sent reforms and how the failure to understand the parties involved and the problems of implementation had led exactly to the chaos that we had originally predicted when the thing was being considered. You may have thought we were harsh. But this post from the former editor of the very conservative statewide newspaper makes clear how limited the original story was and how much worse the situation is than we first reported. The term-limited Speaker, whose departure will leave no leader in state government with a stake in seeing this Reform 1.0 to be successful, says “90% of the work is still ahead of us.” Uh, sorry. 80% of that should have already been done before anything was passed, and the consultants were told the likely problems. I know because I was one of those who told them as I was on my way to the train outta Dodge.

    Here’s more:

    But Thursday’s meeting was like watching a bad rehearsal of a Broadway musical that ought to be farther along.

    At one point, Frazier suggested that volunteers from the Tulsa-based George Kaiser Family Foundation would manage nonviolent offenders serving shorter sentences for probation violations at new Intermediate Revocation Facilities instead of longer sentences in standard prisons.

    Not so, foundation staffer Amy Santee, a project supporter. She politely corrected Frazier, saying the foundation’s role is to “carry forward existing treatment programs” at sites like the Eddie Warrior Correctional Center and Mabel Bassett Correctional Center — not to perform IRF treatments.

    Santee added that foundation-funded staff are not volunteers, and are credentialed in their fields.

    And though the Council of State Governments has offered grants to support the ambitious project, it was soon clear that no one outside of Corrections and Mental Health had applied. A representative of Attorney General Scott Pruitt revealed that the AG’s office hasn’t asked for a grant. Other participants on the working group said they didn’t know about the CSG grant offer. Among those who knew, there was confusion about the grant application process.

    Note several things here (while keeping in mind that nothing about to be said deals with the legislature’s failure to appropriate for the reforms, claiming to give DOC money for increased postrelease supervision while requiring increased private prison funding ostensibly out of dollars used by the recidivism-cutting state correctional industries program to buy materials). The same two groups who took out the meat of the previous year’s minor effort at Corr Sent reform are clearly bringing out the stonewalls for this one. The governor has sent someone from her office shown in both stories to be clueless about way too much, not the directors of DOC or the mental health/substance abuse dept, to the committee to decide on implementation efforts. Would you do that if you were serious about a constructive effort?

    And the AG not only isn’t interested in effective implementation support, his office is the one charged with distributing grants to law enforcement and then evaluate how well he did in selecting. AND he’s been charged with issuing the periodic reports on the results of the entire reform effort, receiving data from the state’s public safety agencies but not required to do anything more than print them out on glossy paper and call that an analysis. Which is good because, were he actually expected to produce a true evaluation of the changes in public safety before and after implementation and demonstrate that the reforms were responsible, he has no one on his staff qualified to do a professional evaluation. That doesn’t mean he couldn’t find someone in the University of Oklahoma’s econ department to produce a “professional evaluation” that reaches the results he wants. That academic department has done it repeatedly in the two decades OK has been playing at Corr Sent reform.

    That’s assuming the state actually gets to the point of doing more than sending money to police departments to offset budget cuts but in the name of “fighting violent crime,” as intended by the legislation. If the state’s lucky, that’s all that will get implemented and it can actually be defended, just not in terms of “justice reinvestment.” Again, that’s not just our opinion. Read this quote from one of the co-chairs as the meeting concluded:

    “We’re all adults here,” he said. “I think it would require a miracle for us to be ready to implement this law by November 1.”

    We can all think of better things to pray for. Like those states that keep looking at these Corrections Sentencing Reform 1.0 experiences and thinking that “hey, that’s what we need to be doing!!”


  • Your Weekend Perfect Storm Reading

    --Mike Connelly

    Lots of stuff on this if you wait until the end of a busy week to compile it all. Pick and choose. The basic theme is the same. The components of The Perfect Storm are picking up steam, and their impacts on state and local budgets, including ours in Corrections Sentencing, will be greater than we’re used to or than the traditional reforms currently popular will be able to adjust to. Feel free to re-read this if you need to whole spiel. Have a good weekend.

    Energy
    “Heat Wave, Budget Cuts Strain Utility Safety Net”

    STATELINE does another nice job on the way states are having to borrow from committed dollars to support other uses brought on by The Storm, such as getting cooling assistance to poor people . . . taking take from heating assistance to poor people meant for this winter. Feds not helping like they used to, which would be competing with drought assistance if the feds were helping with that like they used to. Different states with the same problem in different parts of the country, showing it’s widespread. And a common problem for the future.

    “Peak Oil Denial: Another Curious Contribution”

    You may remember a couple of weeks back when we whacked on a bogus analysis by a former oil company exec now employed at Harvard that cherry-picked its way to a cheery future of bunnies and dandelions as far as energy goes. Now a Canadian using the piece has gotten favorable press, which this article takes apart in a very humorous way, at least humorous if it were really a funny situation. Here’s one excerpt to show what we mean:

    And as for their delight with oil shale/shale oil/tight oil/whatever, perhaps they might toss in a comment or two about the effort and time required for production; maybe some mention of cost; quality … yeah, quality would be a good thing to pass along; offset caused by depletion of existing conventional resources … that would have helped a lot; as would a brief word comparing the production of shale/tight oil versus conventional … but only if factual perspective is important to you.

    The whole thing should be read. Soon.

    “The Enlightenment and Oil”


    For a more academic approach to the just above, this piece praises and cites an International Monetary Fund report that reaches the same conclusions. And might sound a little more authoritative when you have those figh . . . discussions at your neighborhood pub this weekend.

    “What Other Cities Can Learn from Seattle’s Troubled ‘Deep Green Building Program”


    Seattle offered incentives for buildings designed to generate their own electricity and use only water falling on site. Instead of the 12 developers they hoped for taking them up on it, they only got 3. Well, okay, that’s three more than nothing. And the models will have applications for other buildings, including those built and/or retrofitted for prison facilities. And the obstacles that are listed for why the program didn’t have more responses for the most part don’t apply to DOCs (like the Not In My Backyard problem . . . prison grounds are already there in people’s backyards). Anyway, would be nice if other deep pockets like the feds or nonprofits would go national with similar incentive programs. A 25% payoff rate on something this important wouldn’t be bad at all.

    “Neighbors Cite Water Concerns in Opposition to Illinois Coal Mine”


    Another conflict between two components of The Storm. A coal-rich seam in Illinois will require tons of water to get out, water that gets used by small towns and villages in the area as well as the farmland. Jobs galore, though. Not betting on the towns and villages, but a dropping demand for coal might help them.

    “How to Solve the Solar Storage Problem”

    One of the big problems with solar energy, of course, is that it’s not there at night or when clouds override the sky. This piece, as its headline promises, goes through some of the ideas to deal with that, with the promise that most of the tech that we’ll need for solar, wind, etc., is already there with great potential, just not quite activated yet.


    Climate
    “Building Resilience in a Changing Climate”

    Ah, yes. “Resilience.” The word of the future as we adjust to The Storm, as we noted in our multi-part series a couple of weeks back. Here’s the writer’s definition: “. . . resilience is the capacity to absorb shocks, reorganize, and continue functioning.” Which is what we will need to be much, much better at in The Storm and after. The rest of the piece provides a good overview of the concept and you can test yourself on how it applies to the stuff we talked about in the series.

    “Real Mayan Apocalypse May Have Been Their Own Fault”

    Combo of long-term drought, ignorance, and mismanagement of resources. Clearing forests and drying out the land underneath isn’t a good strategy in a drought situation, we learn (and should have already had a clue). Good thing we’re a lot smarter than those Mayan guys. Oh, wait . . .

    “Science Advisor Warns Climate Target ‘Out the Window’”

    British science advisor to the government there throws in the towel on keeping the temps down to the 2 degrees Centigrade (the weird one the rest of the world uses, actually well over 3 degrees in the All-American Fahrenheit). Says we’re looking at 5 degrees C if we don’t start acting. You know, like those Mayans.

    “U.S. Sees Worst West Nile Outbreak in Its History”

    Update on one of the predicted effects of climate change, increased migration of insects and the diseases they bring with them into the new areas. One way health budgets get affected and then compete with corrections and other services for declining funds. Just one way.

    “2012: Fewest Tornadoes, Least Ice, Most Acres Burned”

    Well, one out of three’s better than .000. And those tornadoes didn’t show up because of that heat dome that brought the drought. Not sure it was a fair trade. At least for those who wouldn’t have gotten hit. Of course, the year’s not over yet.

    “Costs of Big Wildfire Season Hurting Some States”

    Those “most acres burned”? Cost money to put them out. Utah’s state share of the $50m. the fires cost it was $16m. (so far) out of the $3m. budgeted. Washington’s looking at almost $20m. out of the $11m. it appropriated. Oregon’s spent over $3m. so far (not a record) and Montana has chipped in around $25m. Idaho, you ask? Over $23m. Money that would have gone elsewhere, but now moved over to pay for the fires projected by all the climate models and analyses. Better plan on those amounts staying the same or growing long-term, you state budgeters.

    “Drought Dries Up Wells, Reveals Sunken Burger Kings”


    No, not an Onion piece. Turns out a barge Burger King cast off in a 1993 flood and sunk, only to be revealed again because the Mississippi River has dropped to historically low levels. They also have located an old Navy mine sweeper that apparently disappeared in the river years ago. But this piece has a lot more than just that. You get a cumulative and dynamic map of the growth of the drought in the lower 48, news of wells in Kansas and St. Louis going dry (with water having to be bought and shipped to pastures to care for livestock), a map of the current fire dangers in those lower 48, and pictures of the Burger King. Could be the highlight of your weekend. And think what that says about you.


    Economy
    “BofA: The US Economy Is ‘in the Eye of the Storm’”

    Bank of America’s top economist (aka astrologist) gets one right this time. The “lull” (some lull) we’re in right now is surrounded on all sides by the tripwires that he discusses in the piece. We’re actually just noting this, though, because he uses “storm,” not quite like we do, but close enough. It’s the metaphor (analogy? simile?) that needs to be spread.

    “Warning of Crisis ‘Worse Than GFC’, Says World Bank”

    This Australian piece alerts us to the World Bank’s outlook for the planet, which is similar to BofA’s for the US. “GFC” stands for “Global Financial Crisis,” and the Bank is pointing to things like China’s downturn and problems in Europe, as well as US and Japan, as indicators that things are not getting better in the short-term . . . and could go south even worse than the situation we’re in. Your state can handle that, of course, but most can’t. Reaching for that Guinness yet?

    “The End of US Economic Growth”


    And a conservative think tank is taking note of the stories above. This review of an article going around on the headline topic describes the different eras of growth (and not) in American history, showing the classic birth, growth, plateauing that S-graphs show. The problem is that the last stage of that model is decline. The piece goes through six factors—demographics, education, inequality, globalization, energy and environment, and debt—that used to be global advantages for the US but now . . . not so much. The article also links readers to a “Great Stagnation” piece that complements the readings. None of this is a guarantee, but folks, if you’re planning on a return to “the good old days” when you could throw money at low public safety-efficient efforts like prisons and call getting a small percentage more people paroled “reform,” the odds are reeaaallllyyyyy poor. So putting off the days of more serious effort will just make it harder, more costly, and less effective. Time to act.


  • Sunday Outside the Silo Book Review 7-29-12

    As part of our endless quest in the face of slow news days to provide you relevant info on how to deal with the forces facing correction sentencing as we approach 2020, we will every Sunday provide the familiar “book review.” Well, not so familiar, actually. We intend to focus on books that don’t fit into the reigning “inside the silo” paradigm that has so successfully gotten us where we are today. Sometimes that may mean corrections and/or sentencing books that challenge the existing mantras. Other times, it may mean books that don’t even touch on corrections and/or sentencing but have significant relevance that we would otherwise miss by insisting on staying inside our silo. And, so you won’t have to worry about bookmarking or coming back and scrolling through archives when you want to check something we said, we will gladly post each review over on the left-hand side of the blog for easy reference. Please. Don’t thank us. The astonishment in your eyes is enough.

    A little different take this week on how we usually presentour reviews.  As I’ve been reviewing materials for the series we’ve been running on resilience and its importance in helping us manage the swirls and waves of The Perfect Storm now and in coming years, I checked in again with a book I read a few years ago.  Thomas Homer-Dixon’s (no, I didn’t make that name up) The Upside of Down:  Catastrophe, Creativity, and the Renewal of Civilization.  As you’ll see, it covers very similar ground to last week’s book review specifically on“resilience,” so I won’t repeat my analysis. What I will do is hit most of the pages I bookmarked at the time and point out the quotes that made me do so. Their compilation will hopefully interest you in the book itself as much as a formal review and also cohere into a narrative that we need to consider in itself.

    You can tell from the title one of the most important aspects of Homer-Dixon’s thesis, his belief that, despite The Storm and itscoming consequences (which he documents and elaborates in detail), he sees paths through it, based very similarly to the principles and concepts which we have been highlighting this week and will next week as well.  He even creates a term (when you have a hyphenated last name, you apparently get to do that), “catagenesis,” to describe the rebirth of communities, organizations, and societies in the aftermath of the changes The Storm will cause. Here’s why it’s good:

    Of course, even constrained breakdown, when it affects our communities, companies, and societies, can hurt many people, sometimes very badly.  But it can also shatter the forces standing in the way of change and the deeply entrenched and too-comfortable mindsets that keep people from seeing exciting possibilities for renewal.  [Corrections Sentencing status quo and Reform1.0 anyone?]  It can, in short, be a source of immense creativity—a shock that opens up political, social, and psychological space for fresh ideas, actions,institutions, and technologies that weren’t possible before. . . .[Corrections Sentencing Reform 2.0 anyone?]

     

    How does this happen? Well, let’s turn it over to the author.

    If we’re going to choose a good route through this turbulent future, we need to change our conventional ways of thinking and speaking. . . . We talk as if we can understand and master everything around us, keeping what we want and discarding what we don’t want.  This attitude is deeply dangerous.  The surest way for us to crash disastrously is to believe that we know and can master it all, because then we’ll lose our capacity for self-criticism and self-reflection.  We’ll no longer see the signals around us that tell us things are going wrong and that we should adjust our course.

    We need, instead, toadopt an attitude toward the world, ourselves within it, and our future that’s grounded in the knowledge that constant change and surprise are now inevitable.  The new attitude—which involves having a prospective mind—aggressively engages with this new world of uncertainty and risk.  A prospective mind recognizes how little we understand, and how we control even less. . . .  

    When a society has to confront a bunch of critical problems at the same time, it can’t easily focus its resources on one and then move to the others.  Unfortunately, the key stresses that I’ve pinpointed in this book, and that are affecting our world right now, are all getting worse at the same time [aka The Perfect Storm] . . . .

    At the heart of myargument is the idea of overload.  A society overloaded with stresses breaks down. Whether a society is overloaded depends not only on the nature of the stresses it encounters but also on whether it can manage or adapt to them. . ..

    In general, the greater the number and severity of the stresses affecting a society—and the morethey combine synergistically—the greater the chance of a social breakdown. . ..

    What kinds of denial [of the number, severity and combinations of stresses we’re calling The Perfect Storm and of its growing impact on Corrections Sentencing resources and operations] do we employ today?  Aided and abetted by politicians, commentators, and so-called experts who are often only too willing to tell us what we want to hear, we use, I believe, a range of strategies to convince ourselves that the problems we face aren’t terribly serious, that our future will look more or less like our past, and that the road in front of us—beyond the fog—is straight and clear.

    Evidence that doesn’t fit this happy vision is accumulating—witness the evidence I’ve detailed about the tectonic pressures building under the surface of our daily lives.  Such pressures seem to be causing the kind of foreshocks that commonly precede larger system breakdowns. . . .

    So existential denialeventually entails big costs:  the dominant theory of reality [overall and in Corrections Sentencing] can become so convoluted and arbitrary that it’s almost unintelligible. . . .

    We may be great problem solvers, but unfortunately we’re increasingly creating problems that wearen’t effectively solving. . . . [O]ur brains aren’t good at identifying, tracking, and acting on slow-creep problems. . . . We don’t see the slowly building pressure, as we adapt almost unconsciously to incremental changes in our surroundings.  Our attention is instead drawn to things that change quickly and substantially [like the Kardashians??].  This problem is made worse when a great deal of uncertainty surrounds the change, because then we have added room for denial. . . .

    Then there are the social causes of denial.  Probably the most important is the self-interest of powerful groups . . . that have a vested interest in a particular way of doing things or viewing the world.  If outside evidence doesn’t fit their worldview, these groups can cajole, co-opt, or coerce other people to deny this evidence. . . .

    We need a new approach to the great challenges we are confronting. Efforts at management are often important, even essential, but sometimes they aren’t going to give us a satisfactory solution.  The alternative approach I advocate requires us to adopt what I’ve termed a prospective mind.  We need to be comfortable with constant change, radical surprise, and even breakdown, because these are now inevitable features of our world, and we must constantly anticipate a wide variety of futures. . . .

    . . . Specifically, if we’re going to have the best chance of following a different and positive path, we must take four actions.  [Compare these to the principles and concepts we’ve been working with in our series, please.]  First, we must reduce as much as we can the force of the underlying tectonic stresses in order to lower the risk of synchronous failure . . . .Second, we need to cultivate a prospective mind so we can cope better with surprise.  Third, we must boost the overall resilience [!!!!] of critical systems like our energy and food supply networks.  And fourth, we need to prepare to turn breakdown to our advantage when it happens—because it will. . . .

    [A] highly compartmentalized approach doesn’t work in a world of converging and synergistic stresses.  We must bring experts together across disciplinary barriers [“outside the silo”!!!], just as we must bring governments together across cultural, ideological, and political barriers.  And we also need to realize that there’s no magic bullet:  there’s no single technical solution, institutional response, or policy that will neatly resolve all our challenges in one fell swoop. More than ever in humanity’s history, we have to be aggressively proactive on multiple fronts at the same time. . . .

    This is where cultivating a prospective mind comes in—the second action we need to take.  We can’t possible flourish in a future filled with sharp nonlinearities and threshold effects . . . unless we’re comfortable with change, surprise, and the essential transience of things, and unless we’re open to radically new ways of thinking about our world and about the way we should lead our lives. . . .

    Resilience is an emergent property of a system—it’s not a result of any one of the system’ parts but of the synergy between all its parts. So as a rough and ready rule, boosting the ability of each part to take care of itself in a crisis boosts overall resilience. . . .

    Advance planning means we need to develop a wide range of scenarios and experiment with technologies, organizations, and ideas.  We’ll do better at these tasks, and we’ll also do better in the confusing aftermath of breakdown, if we use a decentralized approach to solving our problems, because traditional centralized and top-down approaches aren’t nimble enough, and they stifle creativity. . . .

    We have an advantage over the Romans that gives us a head start: we understand much better how the complex systems around us behave.  Rome failed in the end partly because it didn’t—and couldn’t—understand that it had doomed itself to fail.  It couldn’t see clearly the multiple stresses converging on it; that it was bounded by the exigencies of its natural world; and that, as complexities and entrenched power accumulated, it was inexorably becoming a static, brittle system.  We don’t have the same excuse.  We know that static, brittle systems don’t survive. We also understand that in any complex adaptive system, breakdown, if limited, can be a key part of that system’s long-term resilience and renewal.

    Again, this material coupled to last week’s review will give us the structure to form tentative but more confident responses to whatever The Perfect Storm brings us.  As we continue the series next week, feel free to refer back and to the previous review.  And remember that, while we may get things wrong, that’s not a sign of failure if we learn and adapt.  So where you think we’re getting the possible adaptations wrong, please let us know.


  • Sunday Outside the Silo Book Review 7-22-12

    As part of our endless quest in the face of slow news days to provide you relevant info on how to deal with the forces facing correction sentencing as we approach 2020, we will every Sunday provide the familiar “book review.” Well, not so familiar, actually. We intend to focus on books that don’t fit into the reigning “inside the silo” paradigm that has so successfully gotten us where we are today. Sometimes that may mean corrections and/or sentencing books that challenge the existing mantras. Other times, it may mean books that don’t even touch on corrections and/or sentencing but have significant relevance that we would otherwise miss by insisting on staying inside our silo. And, so you won’t have to worry about bookmarking or coming back and scrolling through archives when you want to check something we said, we will gladly post each review over on the left-hand side of the blog for easy reference. Please. Don’t thank us. The astonishment in your eyes is enough.

    As we’ve focused on the multiple enormous economic, environmental, social, and institutional challenges on our Corrections Sentencing horizon swirling together to form The Perfect Storm, we admittedly tend to highlight the negative rather than the options we have to deal with it all. We do try to let you know about promising efforts and experiments, hopeful developments in each of the areas, but the ration may seem skewed by our wanting to drum home the reality and seriousness of what we face. So it’s time for us to talk more about the “deal with it all” part, to consider what we will need to do and structure to get to the other side of The Storm with maximum public safety from our Corrections Sentencing activities.

    To start, we’re reviewing Andrew Zolli and Ann Marie Healy’s Resilience: Why Things Bounce Back to uncover some basic principles of how systems either do or don’t manage the kinds of engulfing swirls that are only in their opening stages right now. Then into this week we will look at what those principles, offered generally by the authors, might specifically translate into for us in Corrections Sentencing. The result will hopefully be a bare-bones guide for at least thinking about what successful facilities and operations may look like by 2020.

    Zolli is the idea guy behind this book and apparently directs something called PopTech, a “global innovation network.” We’re old and clueless about such things, but the depth, background, and thought that have gone into this book say that he’s probably really good at what he does. The “global” and “network” tell us that he sees systemically and nonlinearly, which separates him from 99% of the thought that goes into Corrections Sentencing policy and most other policy as well. We’ll do a quick summary of his general ideas, then we’ll pull it together at the end to set up what we’ll be applying during the week.

    As often as we invoke “inside” and “outside the silo” to advocate for dissolution of blinkered paradigms and perspectives, you’ll see why we immediately tuned into this quote: “One hallmark of [major disruptions and disasters] is that they reveal the dependencies between spheres that are more often studied and discussed in isolation from one another.” Like the ways weather, energy, water, and their related consequences will determine what we’re able to do as they change dramatically in years ahead. And given the frequency of our citing the metaphor of “white water rafting” to describe how we’re transitioning from relatively placid and predictable rowing on a relatively calm and known river to the sharp, sudden, unpredictable, and dangerous waters of the rapids, you won’t be surprised that we were nodding when we read: “If we cannot control the volatile tides of change, we can learn to build better boats. We can design—and redesign—organizations, institutions, and systems to better absorb disruption, operate under a wider variety of conditions, and shift more fluidly from one circumstance to the next.” IOW, we need to focus on “resilience.”

    What is “resilience”? Well, despite differences in specific contexts, it can generally be defined as “the capacity of a system, enterprise, or a person to maintain its core purpose and integrity in the face of dramatically changed circumstances.” For us that means the capacity to maintain maximum public safety and a commitment to real justice (not the narrowly, media and special interest driven versions too prevalent in recent years) in the face of even tighter budgets and even more external and internal pressures. The strategies developed and highlighted through the book include: “ensuring that there are sufficient reserves available to any given system; or diversifying its inputs; or collecting better, real-time data about its operations and performance; or enabling greater autonomy for its constituent parts; or designing firebreaks so that a disturbance in on part does not disrupt the whole.”

    Being a systems and network guy, Zolli understands that you can never do just one thing, as they say. Whatever you do one place or to one thing will cause changes elsewhere that too frequently then also have to be remedied. To keep from being overwhelmed, resilient systems and organizations “employ tight feedback mechanisms to determine when an abrupt change or critical threshold is nearing.” He also understands that too tight coupling of the components of a network or system can bring everything down if one thing goes down. So developing your system so that operations are modular, able to function pretty much without coupling if necessary, will be very helpful in challenging times. Failure in one component will not mean failure of all. But well-designed systems will also feature interoperability, that is, the ability to combine and work together. Zolli’s world will not preclude all the modules still being able to “cluster” and “swarm” as necessary to get things done in the more traditional ways.

    What’s interesting about Zolli’s perspective is the tentative and probabilistic nature of what he describes, the recognition that the set and routine procedures we are familiar with (and prefer!!) will not hold as we bounce along in the rapids. The approach to white water is to change on the fly as the water moves you along and even to learn from your failures, which are seen useful and opportunities to learn. That doesn’t mean that you should welcome escapes from facilities, but you get the idea.

    Zolli doesn’t ignore the personal relationships side of all this. Key to the flexibility and experimentation that he advocates will be trust, cooperation, reciprocity, and diversity of people and ideas. In particular, with relevance to our Corr Sent future, he emphasizes the importance of strong communities. And what he calls “translational leaders,” the folks connecting constituencies inside and outside the silos, developing necessary networks, knowledge, agendas, etc., into a coherent system and narrative to guide values and operations. These aren’t “czars,” dictating, but enablers of “adaptive governance” that stay upright as much and as best as possible in the raging river of change.

    The “white water” concept is more fully on display in this quote: “The deeper lesson is that to improve resilience we often need to work in more than one mode, one domain, and one scale at a time—we have to think about the aspects of a system that move both more slowly and more quickly than the one we are interested in, or examine aspects that are, at once, more granular and more global.” Not easy to do, obviously, not the least of which because of the politics of such contexts, even when the political leadership is solid. [Insert your own comment here about the state of such things today.] He gets well the situation we in Corrections Sentencing reform face: “[Preparing for the changes coming] involves trading away the certainty of short-term efficiency gains for the mere possibility of avoiding or surviving a hypothetical future emergency which may never materialize.” If this book has a major shortcoming, it is in its general failure to describe how to overcome this latter problem. But it may not be overcome-able so that may not be a failure at all.

    Zolli and Healy back up their analyses with discussions and real-life examples of what they mean by systems/networks that can be robust enough to function yet fragile enough not to stultify themselves, of those “clusters” forming and unforming to deal more effectively with their changing environments, of the resiliency of individuals and communities in adopting flexible and cooperative patterns of interaction in the face of change, of the learning of individuals and communities of the means to cope with those changes more effectively through openness to and acceptance of reality and the diversity of each other; and of the importance and characteristics of those “translational leaders.”

    Not sure if Zolli or Healy (the professional writer apparently brought in to help) is responsible for phrases like “vacation from history” or living “in a world devoid of consequences” that apply to our recent American history, with plenty of resources to waste, to indulge ourselves, to pursue ultimately harmful paths. Oops, did we just describe our last four decades of Corrections Sentencing policy, too? In any case, those are smack-on descriptions that detail what we now have to overcome as a nation and as a field/profession. Too much is happening, too much awaits. As we say, the tired and untrue are already being seen as much more dangerous. Wait until the budgets go down more and the costs rise beyond our current comprehension.

    Zolli is aware of all this ignorance (not stupidly, just being ignorant) of the threatening future reality. “In spite of this, surprisingly few communities or organizations have any kind of structure in place to think broadly and proactively about the fragilities and potential disruptions that confront them. This has to change.” [Duh.] “Today, it’s unthinkable for an organization of any meaningful size not to continuously monitor its financial or supply chain risk; soon it will be equally unthinkable not to scan for a broader array of potential disruptions, from environmental issues such as carbon, water, energy, and climate risks to internal cultural factors like levels of cooperation and trust, and social issues such as the health and well-being of the communities these organization operate in.”

    Can we do it? If, according to Zolli, we “embrace adhocracy,” that is, “informal team roles, limited focus on standard operating procedures, deep improvisation, rapid cycles, selective decentralization, the empowerment of specialist teams, and a general intolerance of bureaucracy.” The effectiveness of “adhocracy” depends greatly on data, reliable and consistently available data on performance and outcomes, particularly data that can be modeled efficiently for projections and simulations. Another more minor failing of this book is the authors’ lack of attention to all the problems with models and projections that exist today in abundant display and lack of call for constant feedback and replication to verify findings, something they emphasize in other ways other places.

    In the end, they do acknowledge the tentative nature of their discussion and recommendations. “. . . we must remember that there are no finish lines here and no silver bullets. Resilience is always, perhaps maddeningly, provisional, and its insistence toward holism, toward longer-term thinking, and less-than-peak efficiency represent real political challenges. Many efforts to achieve it will fail, and even a wildly successful effort to boost it will fade, as new forces of change are brought to bear on a system. Resilience must continuously be refreshed and recommitted to. Every effort at resilience buys us not certainty, but another day, another chance.”

    So how and what can we in Corr Sent take from all this? What can we apply? Well, let’s start with the basic questions:

    “What causes one system to break and another to rebound? How much change can a system absorb and still retain its integrity and purpose? What characteristics make a system adaptive to change? In an age of constant disruption, how do we build in better shock absorbers for ourselves, our communities, companies, economies, societies, and the planet?”

    Okay, we in Corr Sent probably can’t save the planet, but we might be able to pitch in for the rest, can’t we? We’ll start that conversation in more detail this week.

  • New Report in the Upper Right

    --Mike Connelly

    Wanted to note for you that we’ve added this report from the Sentencing Project to our links of important Corrections Sentencing Reform 2.0 articles in the upper right of this page. We had only gotten started a bit at JCO and were working on proposals more than the blog when it came out. That said, we shouldn’t have held off as long as we did pointing it out in case you hadn’t seen it.

    Basically, the Project people got brief essays from some crim justice types around the country to talk about their vision of criminal justice by 2036, a little broader scope than our outer boundary of 2020 here.  Some of them were specific to their concerns, others more expansive and systemic, but all the works are interesting and will invoke head-nodding among our readership here. Jeremy Travis prints out his keynote address to the Project conference with many very good ideas and points, including more focus on ALL crime victims (not just those involved in cases making courts), our sad lack of data and understanding of why crime rose and fell so dramatically 20-25 years ago, development of standards for our assertions of evidence for evidence-based practice, shifts from cases to problemrecs as our units of concern for policymaking, and changes in how we think about prisons.  Bringing all these items to serious agenda-setting, he says, will require “superheroes” of science and passion.  Yes, you may be tempted, wide-eyed, to close the page at that point, but hang in.  More realistic stuff is coming.

    We won’t go through all of the remaining 24 essays, just point out that Alan Jenkins has a good essay on the need for a “compelling narrative” to drive the thought and action in future criminal justice policy as well as the institutional structure to continuously drive that message home.  Dennis Schrantz has a clever vision of 2036 as a period in which mass incarceration has ended, similar to our posts here on how our approach to policy in Corr Sent would have played out in other historical controversies.  The public health model gets used more than once as a viable alternative to our current paradigms, and juvenile justice doesn’t get shirked if that’s one of your interests, either.  Proper concern is shown for issues of gender, race, and class, and several writers do note that we don’t really have a criminal justice system, but don’t go as far as we do here to just call it a criminal processing system.  Obviously nicer than we are.  Todd Clear reiterates points we linked to here earlier about how to cut prison populations more dramatically than Reform 1.0 ever could.  In fact, he makes the simple case about 1.0 that, since the best recidivism reduction we can hope for, from the research, is 20%, a 50% recidivism rate will only be cut to 40%, not nearly enough to meet the demands and needs by 2036.

    Being us, we can’t let the report go without noting things we would have liked to have seen or would have said.  While the need for an “echo chamber” was rightly cited a couple of times, no recommendations made about how to get that going beyond the occasional reports and tv appearances we now get (with their limited effects) and one essay noted how very difficult it is to even get press coverage of real prison issues.  The Project did get an “angel” DA to present on what his district has done to affect prison usage and get more treatment, but there was a reason he was picked.  His district is an exception, not the rule, to the general orientation of prosecutors nationally, dominated as they are in volume and probably number by their self-appointed “archangel”colleagues.  Get the essay-writer on are form panel without having to kowtow to his colleagues, something would get done.  That doesn’t happen and isn’t going to.

    As frequent readers know, we at JCO are concerned about the, frankly, failures of other disciplines like econ and poli sci, psych and policy analysis to make overall constructive contributions to their own fields and policymaking and how those failures can bleed into disciplines like ours that follow their approaches and rhetoric.  A good essay here castigates folks who want to still be using leeches, so to speak, in what we do, but there’s no recognition that medical research has MAJOR problems itself and no call for attention to understanding how those disciplines have screwed up so we don’t repeat their errors.  And Travis’ essay, as good as it was, seems to feel that because the causes of cancer don’t vary across the country, the causes of crime and their resolution in a nation with Louisiana and Texas, Vermont and Massachusetts, Washington and Oregon, and Wisconsin and Minnesota shouldn’t be seen as varying either. Good luck with that.

    But you can probably guess what our biggest criticism of the report would be, given our constant harping on The Perfect Storm.  Despite these essays being done in 2011, a year when the clarity of weather, water, energy, and associated concerns started hitting home in a big way, they could have been written 5, 10, some even 20 years earlier.  With the exception of the public health essays, they are all still “inside the silo” that has blinded us to forces outside that silo that will have far more impact on what happens in Corrections Sentencing by 2020 than anything the writers discuss, much less by2036.  Elliot Currie does show some needed skepticism about the fiscal capacity of government to make the changes proposed therein, but he’s still mainly “inside the silo.”  Until these and other thinkers get that there’s a wave hitting waayyy far inland and not going away, even these valuable contributions will be far too inadequate to get us where we will need to be.

    Enough.  It’s good to have any serious thought about our predicament beyond the next couple of years or a five or ten year prison population projection inside the silo going on and disseminated.  If/when your state understands the true enormity of what’s facing us and starts frantically wracking around looking for ideas and priorities, this will be one of the first places you should start.  Don’t worry.  It’ll just be a click away in the upper right.

     

  • Wherein We Break Our Vow of Silence Once Again

    --Mike Connelly

    We know, we know. We promised once the Oklahoma legislative session was over, we wouldn’t keep hammering on the reform [sic] that it passed this last year for the overassuming and underperforming undergirding the entire legislation. But this op-ed tipped us over again, although we will claim that this post is just another in our continuing complaints about “good” articles that overlook and understate so much about policy in our criminal processing system. It’s our home state and we know so much more of the “inside” story on this that we can’t just let this stuff slide.

    The piece lauds the legislation and hypothesizes that OK will be the next great example of criminal processing reform nationally. All based on a piddling sum appropriated to cover new required supervision of inmates who used to be released directly to the streets, grants to local law enforcement that will likely be used to offset losses in staff due to budget cuts rather than initiatives spelled out in the bill (although the names of these initiatives will be used exponentially more in press releases, just watch), and even more piddling money for pre-sentencing mental health assessments of offenders. The op-ed also notes that DOC can build intermediate revocation centers, but the money was not available, meaning that halfway houses from the private sector will be the go-to for that part of the legislation, the private sector that gains nothing from actually reducing prison populations.

    We’re not making any of that up. In fact, it’s worse than it sounds. For instance, the money appropriated for the increased supervision? More than offset by mandated increases in private prison funding. As this article spells out, the senator responsible for that says DOC has the money to do both, but it turns out that’s only by cutting deeply into the inventory budget for the state correctional industries program, one of the best anti-recidivism programs DOC runs. So it looks like those parole officers will have even more to do as recidivism goes up.

    The law enforcement grants will be allocated by the state Attorney General’s Office, not exactly unbiased and critical of tough-talking, sameo-sameo walking. And those assessments before sentencing? No one bothered to do intense focus-grouping of the state DAs or judges to even see if they’ll be looked at, much less followed. Historically, OK practitioners have not been supportive of outsiders telling them how to sentence, as witnessed by the very sparse use of even pre-sentence investigations in the state. The fact that few counties could provide data on PSIs to the reform team might have been a tipoff if anyone had actually been interested in likely implementation when the legislation was going through.  The capper is that the evaluation [sic] of this reform will be done by the Attorney General's office (who will for one thing be evaluating himself on how well the grants he made decisions on did) which has, we're certain, no professional program evaluator on staff and is only empowered to gather stats from contributing agencies to issue in a descriptive stat report each year.  No independent and professional analysis of actual effectiveness of anything passed.  Good plan.

    All of this will be familiar (and maybe nauseating) for regular readers here. What’s most concerning about the op-ed isn’t so much it’s unquestioning acceptance of the value of the legislation (even after the invaluable OK Policy Blog has repeatedly raised questions). It’s that we get the frankly dangerous invocation once again of Texas as the shining example that Oklahoma will try to follow. Bluntly put, in a process supposedly based on evidence-based practice, we have little evidence that Texas has accomplished what is claimed for it or, even if it has, the states following it have followed or will follow what got TX there.

    For one thing, note that Texas’ push for reforms came from a flat-out rejection by the House Speaker there of any more new prisons. With that strict ceiling placed on what the state would do, the House and Senate leaders there had to come up with other ways of protecting public safety. That did lead them to the research behind evidence-based practice and many of the changes that had worked in other places. Ask yourself, though. How many other states have such a restriction placed on their ability to do prisons prior to their reforms? The answer in my experience with these efforts was none, but I don’t know if that holds absolutely. It didn’t in OK and won’t in the coming years that are supposed to receive continued support after the top political leader supporting them leaves through term limits.

    But before we go crazy about just the bills that got passed, what happened to appropriations and a continued commitment to the move away from prisons? This piece and this one make clear that the state continued to add prison space (2000 beds) despite famously closing an old prison located in a now-upcoming area that doesn’t think prisons nearby help property and resale values. And the writers castigate the policymakers for, when push comes to shove again, valuing prison beds over spending for the treatment associated with the reforms. This piece noted that 1000 treatment beds had gone unused, probably in large part because the legislation didn’t require their use by judges and prosecutors (see OK above).

    But that’s not even the real concern. The Texas reforms got passed in 2007, probably took a year more or less to implement (although not completely as just noted). It’s only been in the last year or so that a professional evaluation could legitimately be done of any long-term and lasting impact from them. You seen one? One that includes all the other factors that may have influenced the favorable stats that get hauled out without question to demonstrate reform effectiveness? Seriously. If you’ve seen one, let us know.

    Such an evaluation would have to take into account any trends in TX crime rates before the reforms ever went into effect. If you look at the state’s crime rates, you’ll find that its crime rate has dropped every year since 2002, FIVE YEARS before the reforms even passed. Before 2002, they had dropped every year from 1988 to 2000, then edged up a bit in 2001 and 2002 before their current descent. IOW, the claim to fame of the Texas reforms, prominently announced in the OK op-ed, that the TX crime rate dropped after the reforms and therefore all states should follow its lead was actually a continuation of a two-decade trend started by factors as yet unproclaimed but very likely still in play. Another IOW, before we point to changes caused by the reforms, we need to introduce other factors into whatever model is used and then ruthlessly parse out the effect of each. While the programs recommended may be evidence-based, the reforms themselves are not and proclamations of their value and impact should be withheld until they are.

    Which gets us back to the cheerleading of the op-ed. To its credit, the newspaper in question has been one of the few voices for reform in Oklahoma going back a couple of decades now and deserves far more kudos from the state’s citizens that it will ever get. But that doesn’t excuse reporting that has but doesn’t use the Internet to track down basic info like that available at the OK Policy Blog or in simple crime rate stats. Pieces helpful at the time may blow up badly for everyone in the reform cause if/when fallacies behind the assumptions and assertions for the reforms actually do come to the fore.

    Just note these stories at the same time as the op-ed that seem to hold promise for possible fuse-lighting. This one on a proposed halfway house location drawing strong opposition in the community. This one and this one from the state DOC trying to assure residents that halfway houses aren’t major threats, but it’s a promise always made with breath held (note the “usually” in the story). And this one showing homicide numbers in Oklahoma City up for the first half of 2012. You wanna be the one claiming wonderful things for reforms if/when something like these or other possibilities explode? You better be on the firmest ground possible with your data and examples.

    Which means much, much better and more substantive than citing piddling changes that may not even cause change and relying on a state that really hasn’t demonstrated reform effectiveness conclusively yet as proof of anything.


  • Corrections Sentencing Reform in Slo-Mo

    --Mike Connelly

    Set of stories out in the last couple of days demonstrating that our pace and scope of Corrections Sentencing Reform are inadequate to meet the piling up of markers being left already by The Perfect Storm. When you’re on a calm part of the river, you can afford to take it routinely and not worry about a mess-up here, there. When you hit the white water, that same approach gets you capsized. The Storm is the white water and we need other ways. As the stories below show.

    “Can Another Study End State Inmate Overcrowding?”

    Finally some skepticism in West Virginia regarding the possible Corrections Sentencing 1.0 that is in process there. This piece notes the DECADES of study of the state overcrowding problem and, despite the assurances of the current reform team leader, questions the likelihood of this new effort being any more successful. The article remembers that the legislature had a deal in the last session that had passed one house overwhelmingly (hallowed bipartisanship at work!!) but was shot down by the House Minority Leader whose objections caused the uber-bipartisan governor to shift to this new effort. Whose objections haven’t changed, according to the article, and who is already whacking at the “bipartisan” team put together for this one. No way if it’s the same old stuff, he says. And everyone else insists there has to be consensus. So guess who has just been given a veto over anything meaningful happening?? Meanwhile practitioners lament the repeated failures and wonder what if anything substantial could be accomplished. Anyone wanna send them a link to this blog and the Corrections Sentencing Reform 2.0 pieces we have over on the left side?

    “Gov. Tom Corbett Signs Pennsylvania Prison Reform into Law”

    Remember a while back when we noted that North Carolina had passed as part of its vaunted Corrections Sentencing Reform 1.0 package the usual “make inmates released to the streets receive mandatory supervision” menu item? But the legislature didn’t pass any new appropriations to pay for it, just like the OK reform effort did pass some money but then required new expenditures for private prison funding that more than wiped that money out? IOW, two states literally getting that “half a loaf” that the reformers don’t want to be the enemy of the good. Well, add a third, Pennsylvania. The governor did get a bill passed on his quick time schedule, but held off on the new menu item, returning money to local jurisdictions for crime prevention that is a major part of the “reinvestment” promised. Which the reform effort chief advisor explicitly said had to be part of the approvals if the reform was to work as projected. Don’t worry. They’ll get around to it later. Like next fall maybe.

    Meanwhile, the irreplaceable OK Policy Blog looks at the effort there and notes, once again, that it left a whole lot undone and poorly monitored. It goes further, of course, and adds a list of items that need quick attention by state policymakers that didn’t make the proposals, probably because they aren’t part of the usual menu we’re talking about (our speculation, not the blog’s). Such as ending driver’s license suspensions for getting caught with controlled substance in the car (whether you were under the influence or not), punitive workplace drug testing laws, and harsh sentences well above the national average for non-violent offenses. The half a loaf folks will correctly say that nothing stops the state from doing this in future years. Only politics, like the departure of the term-limited Speaker who led the meager efforts that did get passed the last couple of years, the only bites of the apple the state will take for several years. (At least after voters there decide whether to pull the governor out of parole decisions for nonviolent offenders, which is touch and go at best.)

    Meanwhilec, the state’s second major facility only has 48% of its authorized correctional officer complement and is about to receive a bunch of long-term inmates to keep disruption down. Except that relatives of the transferred inmates aren’t confident of the success and are fearful of possible violence against their family members. NONE of this was addressed by the recent reform efforts, and the upfront costs on DOC there for the efforts were explicitly ignored in the passage of them. And the “halfway houses” that supposedly will relieve pressures are already drawing opposition in the communities where they may locate. As this piece argues after reviewing the complaints, “Any guesses on how that will go?”  Maybe if we had had people like the analysts for OK Policy Blog at the table instead of the same people who put stakes through the last efforts at reform in the state, there'd be no need for guessing, or at least getting the right agenda set.

    Actually, they’re not guesses, are they? For any of these states. And the practitioners in all of them, just a few years from now, will be quoted just like the WV ones in the first article, as those states start playing the game once more. Slo-mo in white water. We can do better.  We have Corrections Sentencing Reform 2.0 with the new play list for rowing and balancing at the ready.  But we have to start by seeing the kind of river we’re in. Before, you know, that capsize thing.


  • Good Warning, More Still Needed

    --Mike Connelly

    Looks like we were correct when we posited yesterday that Joan Petersilia’s keynote address to this year’s (the last??) NIJ conference would focus on how the reforms of the 1990s disappeared when money came back to state budgets. This account describes the bulk of her remarks, which apparently used her home state of California as the test case for her concerns. As we’ve noted here, CA has done its “realignment” of offenders from state to county custody too fast for effective vetting, with little understanding or preparation to determine impact, with the possibility that crime will get worse, not better, and with sparse funding for the treatment programs necessary to keep the county jails from replacing the state as the defendants in the next federal lawsuit. She also made a pitch for “social impact bonds,” which encourage private entrepreneurs to do projects aimed at social outcomes like recidivism reduction to make their profits while saving public money. It could happen, but it could also end up like private prisons. (The evaluation of success just in itself is a really thorny concern, even for something relatively concrete like “did they end up back in prison?”)

    I was a little disappointed in one part of her presentation, however (although I’m getting it second-hand, as you will if you click the link, that is, when you click it). She makes the exceptionally valid point that “We’ve got to stop overselling community corrections—and under-delivering.” If that sounds similar to the concern we express about overselling the research behind evidence-based practice, you get extra points and a cookie (you have to contact J’me for the cookie). She notes her concern (fear?) that, when these programs fail, the natural inclination is to return to prisons if/when possible. And right now she’s right.

    But in that, she’s falling back on the “prisons = public safety” argument herself when she doesn’t include a forceful critique of prisons as failures as well, which is not mentioned in the article. This is a harmful missing link in our approach to Corrections Sentencing reform and why we argue that we need both prison closures and adoption of the elements found here as the public safety-effective ways of getting around the dilemma she rightly exposes. The problem is, if you only focus on Corrections Sentencing Reform 1.0, which is what she apparently did in her talk, then you have no other possibilities. It’s only when you acknowledge the other options that will take the stake holders (those who hold stakes to thrust into meaningful reform that threatens their personal interests and agency sunk costs) out of the mix and make removal of the prison default possible. Thinking “outside the silo,” IOW, as we advocate here, rather than “outside the box” that’s swirling down the drain already and still has the vast bulk of The Perfect Storm to deal with.

    Still, given that she’s identified a major part of our future problem that reformers and policymakers haven’t even got a clue about right now, we shouldn’t criticize too much. She’s performed a valuable service with this address. We can only hope that people listen, that it sets a foundation for moving beyond the boundaries of possibilities that even she is apparently stuck in.


  • Sophia and Metis II

    --Mike Connelly

    At first glance this post might just seem depressing, annoying, whatever (reaalllyyyy want to read it now, don’t you?). But the idea expressed at the end is one we expressed here early on in this blog.

    Progress comes in two flavors: horizontal/extensive and vertical/intensive. Horizontal or extensive progress basically means copying things that work. In one word, it means simply “globalization.” Consider what China will be like in 50 years. The safe bet is it will be a lot like the United States is now. Cities will be copied, cars will be copied, and rail systems will be copied. Maybe some steps will be skipped. But it’s copying all the same.

    Vertical or intensive progress, by contrast, means doing new things. The single word for this is “technology.” Intensive progress involves going from 0 to 1 (not simply the 1 to n of globalization). We see much of our vertical progress come from places like California, and specifically Silicon Valley. But there is every reason to question whether we have enough of it. Indeed, most people seem to focus almost entirely on globalization instead of technology; speaking of “developed” versus “developing nations” is implicitly bearish about technology because it implies some convergence to the “developed” status quo. As a society, we seem to believe in a sort of technological end of history, almost by default.


    The Greek concepts of “sophia” and “metis” capture this dichotomy well. There is knowledge of what you do as routine in stable periods, “sophia”, which can grow within itself but is virtually unworkable when the status quo won’t get the job done in a new unstable period. It’s similar to Thomas Kuhn’s discussion of how the gaps in a current paradigm get filled in ("normal science") but fail to adjust to changing knowledge and reality. (You remember that, right?) Then there’s “metis,” the ability to monitor a changing environment and adjust as shifts occur, as Perfect Storms sweep away the status quo and standard operating procedures. This parallels Kuhn’s new paradigm development that replaces the old one, as Copernicus woomped up on Ptolemy.

    As we noted when we began this blog, “sophia” is not what is called for right now in the face of The Perfect Storm. Nor is Corrections Sentencing Reform 1.0, which is essentially just the filling in of the gaps, “horizontal/extensive,” as the linked piece describes it. To successfully negotiate the swales of The Storm, we need new thinking and processes, the “vertical/intensive progress” of the post. Unlike the situation the post details, though, we actually have those ideas and processes at hand. We don’t need to tax our brains or wring our hands. It’s just a matter of recognizing that “sophia” doesn’t apply now and that “metis” is called for. We’re not at “the end” of Corr Sent history. We’re just at the beginning.

    Simple.


  • Next Up for Corr Sent Reform 1.0--Pennsylvania

    --Mike Connelly

    Saved the comments on PA’s venture into Corrections Sentencing Reform 1.0 for a separate post, seeing as how we dealt with the last three major states, OK, MO, and GA, separately. The reporting so far on this hasn’t been as thorough as in the other states, which, given the spin in those states, doesn’t necessarily mean the reader knows less after reading. Read for yourself here and here and see if you agree.

    From what we can tell, the proposal is standard 1.0 with one sorta exception, more incentive for counties to keep offenders sentenced less than one year who now cost almost $50m. a year apparently. That’s known in the trade as a “prison population driver.” The rest of it sounds like mixes of more grants for cops, changes in DOC policies and procedures, and only parolees in halfway houses.

    As we always say, none of this is bad, just not anywhere near sufficient for what that state is facing with its overcrowded prisons. $50m., give or take, a year in “savings” from hoped-for changes out of a $27.14b. (with a “b”) budget. Apparently the PA DOC is getting no additional money, but it also doesn’t seem to have been given substantial new upfront responsibilities with that like OK stuck on its DOC. If you’ve been reading our critiques, you’ll know we’ll ask “where’s the oversight body to monitor and ensure real savings?” (none mentioned). We’ll hold off on our usual concern regarding telling the state it’s saving money it didn’t spend in the past or will have in the future (like telling a strapped family whose last car was a used Chevy that they’ll save tons on their next Lexus) until we see if that deal with the “less than a year” guys holds.

    Which it might not. Read the first link again and note the exchange between the governor and the DA about how the prosecutors will need more info before signing on. We see two patterns of DA behavior in these groups—if they are pressed for cash themselves and don’t want to hack the pollicymakers off, they stay quiet, as they did in OK and MO, but wrangle behind the scenes; if they aren’t pressed, they raise hell and just try to kill anything they don’t like, as they did in IN. DAs can mobilize the public around “soft on crime,” but not so easily around “my office needs more money.” The more money needed, the less the overt opposition, at least at first. The part of the exchange that expanded to Tony Fabelo, the chief consultant, sounds like the DA may have gone off script a little too soon. Fabelo says flat out that the DA’s concern was discussed by the group without this objection at the time (strategy #1), a rare public whack at a group member by the consulting team. The DA ultimately falls back on “we know best,” aka “Some of us have been doing this for years.”

    Exactly. You archangel DAs HAVE been doing this for years, the same years that the problem has festered and blown out. Which is why we here strongly advocate actions and decisions that avoid the “stake holders” like this DA who are so invested in the “years” of status quo that they are now rendered incapable of thinking in any constructive way about significant change.

    Actually, I would have loved to have seen Fabelo’s face when he posed his comment to the DA. He has dealt with the archangels for decades and knows both what’s coming from them and how not to just sit there and take it. One legit concern about Reform 1.0 procedurally is that, if you’re going to insist that the only reform possible is marginal adjustments to existing practice that will require “buy-in” from the people who got us into our predicament, then at the very least you need someone like Fabelo as the consultant at the table with his own years of knowledge and experience of dealing with those holding tightly and absolutely to their “stakes” to keep their status quo from being harmed. Fabelo is a great choice for this, but there’s only one of him. As far as I know.

    The interesting thing about this particular effort to me is the way the governor has apparently tried to control events and discussions concerning this. Early on, he was taken to task editorially for the secrecy of the workgroup, and now he proposes getting everything passed in . . . the next three weeks. You might expect us to frown on this, but frankly, giving the “stake holders” time to organize and use familiar scare tactics wouldn’t be really shrewd. As the DOC head said, “we’ve been talking about this for 10 years. There’s nothing new here. Nothing here has surprised anybody.”

    Which says better than we can why Corrections Sentencing Reform 1.0 like this is a cheap hardware store parka in The Perfect Storm. When states have accumulating costs (like a $2.2t. (with a “t”) infrastructure bill looming that actually underestimates) and states already have to backtrack on what they thought they’d have available in coming years (as NJ is doing right now), the economy alone will keep this from getting the job done. Add The Perfect Storm, and it’s like hearing the first five seconds of a (insert your favorite singer/band here) song. Pleasant enough, but not enough. PA clearly already knows this. It may get a low-hanging fruit picked, which will be better than nothing, which is basically what MO ended up with. At least no one is expecting the changes to cost MORE, like informed folks in OK are predicting. So, okay. As the editorial stated, “the state’s problems require results,” not just “great intentions.”

    It just didn’t say what level of results.


  • Exactly Right

    --Mike Connelly

    To those of you who scoffed last week when we called from elimination of practitioners from policy bodies responsible for serious Corrections Sentencing Reform, we offer this wonderful start to a series of stories from Louisiana, as the article says, “the world’s prison capital.” Go read the whole thing, of course, but when you get back, let’s talk about these excerpts:

    The hidden engine behind the state's well-oiled prison machine is cold, hard cash. A majority of Louisiana inmates are housed in for-profit facilities, which must be supplied with a constant influx of human beings or a $182 million industry will go bankrupt.

    Several homegrown private prison companies command a slice of the market. But in a uniquely Louisiana twist, most prison entrepreneurs are rural sheriffs, who hold tremendous sway in remote parishes like Madison, Avoyelles, East Carroll and Concordia. A good portion of Louisiana law enforcement is financed with dollars legally skimmed off the top of prison operations.

    If the inmate count dips, sheriffs bleed money. Their constituents lose jobs. The prison lobby ensures this does not happen by thwarting nearly every reform that could result in fewer people behind bars. . . .

    Every dollar spent on prisons is a dollar not spent on schools, hospitals and highways. Other states are strategically reducing their prison populations -- using tactics known in policy circles as "smart on crime." Compared with the national average, Louisiana has a much lower percentage of people incarcerated for violent offenses and a much higher percentage behind bars for drug offenses -- perhaps a signal that some nonviolent criminals could be dealt with differently.

    Do all of Louisiana's 40,000 inmates need to be incarcerated for the interests of punishment and public safety to be served? Gov. Bobby Jindal, a conservative Republican with presidential ambitions, says the answer is no. Despite locking up more people for longer periods than any other state, Louisiana has one of the highest rates of both violent and property crimes. Yet the state shows no signs of weaning itself off its prison dependence.

    "You have people who are so invested in maintaining the present system -- not just the sheriffs, but judges, prosecutors, other people who have links to it," said Burk Foster, a former professor at the University of Louisiana-Lafayette and an expert on Louisiana prisons. "They don't want to see the prison system get smaller or the number of people in custody reduced, even though the crime rate is down, because the good old boys are all linked together in the punishment network, which is good for them financially and politically." . . .

    The more empty beds, the more an operation sinks into the red. With maximum occupancy and a thrifty touch with expenses, a sheriff can divert the profits to his law enforcement arm, outfitting his deputies with new squad cars, guns and laptops. Inmates spend months or years in 80-man dormitories with nothing to do and few educational opportunities before being released into society with $10 and a bus ticket.

    Fred Schoonover, deputy warden of the 522-bed Tensas Parish Detention Center in northeast Louisiana, says he does not view inmates as a "commodity." But he acknowledges that the prison's business model is built on head counts. Like other wardens in this part of the state, he wheels and deals to maintain his tally of human beings. His boss, Tensas Parish Sheriff Rickey Jones, relies on him to keep the numbers up.

    "We struggle. I stay on the phone a lot, calling all over the state, trying to hustle a few," Schoonover said. . . .

    More money spent on locking up an ever-growing number of prisoners means less money for the very institutions that could help young people stay out of trouble, giving rise to a vicious cycle. Louisiana spends about $663 million a year to feed, house, secure and provide medical care to 40,000 inmates. Nearly a third of that money -- $182 million -- goes to for-profit prisons, whether run by sheriffs or private companies.

    "Clearly, the more that Louisiana invests in large-scale incarceration, the less money is available for everything from preschools to community policing that could help to reduce the prison population," said Marc Mauer, executive director of The Sentencing Project, a national criminal justice reform group. "You almost institutionalize the high rate of incarceration, and it's even harder to get out of that situation." . . .

    Tough fiscal times have spurred many states to reduce their prison populations. In lock-'em-up Texas, new legislation is steering low-level criminals into drug treatment and other alternatives to prison.

    In Louisiana, even baby steps are met with resistance. Jindal, who rose to the governor's office with the backing of the sheriffs' lobby, says too many people are behind bars. Yet earlier this year, he watered down a reform package hammered out by the Sentencing Commission he himself had convened. The commission includes sheriffs and district attorneys, so its proposals were modest to begin with.

    Measures like those in Texas, which target a subset of nonviolent offenders, are frequently lauded but may not be enough. To make a significant dent in the prisoner numbers, sentences for violent crimes must be reduced and more money must be invested in inner-city communities, according to David Cole, a professor at Georgetown Law School. Such large-scale change -- which has not been attempted in any state, let alone Louisiana -- can only happen through political will.

    In Louisiana, that will appears to be practically nonexistent. Locking up as many people as possible for as long as possible has enriched a few while making everyone else poorer. Public safety comes second to profits.

    "You cannot build your way out of it. Very simply, you cannot build your way out of crime," said Secretary of Corrections Jimmy LeBlanc, who supports reducing the incarceration rate and putting more resources into inmate rehabilitation. "It just doesn't work that way. You can't afford it. Nobody can afford that."

    And we’re back live!! Despite the length of what we lifted, there’s much, much more there. This is shaping up to be a phenomenal and hopefully influential series. While no state can match Louisiana in this, EVERY state has some Louisiana in it and suffers from the same present and future depending on how much. Now let’s look at the points we, not they, bolded.

    “. . . must be supplied with a constant influx of human beings or a $182 million industry will go bankrupt.” To be remembered every time we insist that you cannot, NOT, have private prisons in your state and expect to be able to control your Corrections Sentencing future. Not only can they not be at a reform table, they cannot have access to state policymakers or practitioners. When they do, this happens. Why? “The prison lobby ensures this does not happen by thwarting nearly every reform that could result in fewer people behind bars. . . .” The major parts of Oklahoma’s latest reforms [sic] that will actually get implemented will be those that empower and pay the state’s private prison companies.

    Not only can private prisons NOT be at the table, none of the other actors whose egos, livelihoods, futures, and power bases will be whacked by real Corrections Sentencing Reform can be there. "You have people who are so invested in maintaining the present system -- not just the sheriffs, but judges, prosecutors, other people who have links to it," said Burk Foster, a former professor at the University of Louisiana-Lafayette and an expert on Louisiana prisons. "They don't want to see the prison system get smaller or the number of people in custody reduced, even though the crime rate is down, because the good old boys are all linked together in the punishment network, which is good for them financially and politically." . . .

    The article does manage to make the point that, beyond the other functions of state government that get shafted just to throw money at prisons in LA, other criminal justice does as well, criminal justice that has shown higher payoffs for dollars spent than prison ever has, not that that would be hard in LA. So this isn’t about public safety, it’s pure power politics (which also means that it takes pure power politics, not "consensus" workgroups or commissions to reverse it all). "Clearly, the more that Louisiana invests in large-scale incarceration, the less money is available for everything from preschools to community policing that could help to reduce the prison population," said Marc Mauer, executive director of The Sentencing Project, a national criminal justice reform group. "You almost institutionalize the high rate of incarceration, and it's even harder to get out of that situation." . . .

    Want more proof that you get the least common denominator when you let these profiteers, public and private, on the commissions, workgroups, and boards that basically are admissions that nothing “outside the silo” can possible be done? “In Louisiana, even baby steps are met with resistance. Jindal, who rose to the governor's office with the backing of the sheriffs' lobby, says too many people are behind bars. Yet earlier this year, he watered down a reform package hammered out by the Sentencing Commission he himself had convened. The commission includes sheriffs and district attorneys, so its proposals were modest to begin with.” Well, knock us over with a feather.

    To sum: “. . . Locking up as many people as possible for as long as possible has enriched a few while making everyone else poorer. Public safety comes second to profits.

    "You cannot build your way out of it. Very simply, you cannot build your way out of crime," said Secretary of Corrections Jimmy LeBlanc, who supports reducing the incarceration rate and putting more resources into inmate rehabilitation. "It just doesn't work that way. You can't afford it. Nobody can afford that."”

    But you CAN pull every dollar out of every service and investment that makes your state worth living in, worth it to businesses to invest in, until you’ve reached the point where you have nothing left to cut but this mess. And a state that is so wretched that Third World immigrants wouldn’t locate there. As we’ve noted, states like Alabama and Arizona are much more publicly choosing that option, even as, like LA, The Perfect Storm has them targeted for more damage than the states that choose to be smart, like Colorado right now. There’s no way a state as lost as LA can put down enough shovels to save itself, despite the quality of this article. But other states, like yours for instance, can make sure that everyone you know knows that this is their future if you let these people continue to participate in the policymaking and reform processes. They don’t know the world “outside the silo” to provide the necessary ideas for change and they have every incentive to make sure no one else is either. So why are they at a serious reform table???

    [One last point from the article that echoes what we have said here since the start of this blog, albeit in different words: “Measures like those in Texas, which target a subset of nonviolent offenders, are frequently lauded but may not be enough. To make a significant dent in the prisoner numbers, sentences for violent crimes must be reduced and more money must be invested in inner-city communities, according to David Cole, a professor at Georgetown Law School. Such large-scale change -- which has not been attempted in any state, let alone Louisiana -- can only happen through political will.” He’s not saying “Corrections Sentencing Reform 1.0” when he talks about the insufficiency of the current “reform” efforts, but that’s what he’s saying. And his suggestions for solutions are strictly 2.0, that we strongly advocate here, as is call for proactive leadership and will, not kumbaya consensus that leads to the weak policy and Emperor’s New Status Quo gruel we see in too many states that even claimed to be serious. No, not new stuff, at least for you regular readers, but nice to be affirmed by some big law school guy.]


  • Closing the Files

    Since we’ve been following the activities of Oklahoma and Missouri as they deal with [sic] their Corrections Sentencing crises, we should bring down the curtains on their legislative activity for the year now. Here you’ll find the latest cheerleading on Oklahoma’s impotent reforms, which we’ve critiqued so much you can probably lipsynch with us. Note, though, that the projected “savings” over the next decade from “diverted” inmates are, while less after legislation, still more than the state churned out the previous decade for far higher actual increases. Just part of the mirrors and smoke that accompany this whole thing. One more time, the grant money will be funneled into existing activities to offset local budget cuts, the state DOC will end up spending more money, not less, privatization reigns, and within a decade or so from now, if Oklahoma will launch its third “reform” to try to control its overloaded prison populations.

    As for Missouri, you’ll note from this story on how its Hatfield/McCoy House/Senate (and both are Republican) managed a budget that only cut the blind $3 million instead of $28, took casino money from pre-schools and gave it to veterans, and replaced the pre-school money with tobacco settlement cash (IOW, neither of the latter two gets general revenue, good luck with that). This from a state whose prison pops have been level for five years and are projected to decline in the next five but couldn’t come up with reform that would guarantee even a million in savings over the next five years.

    Sure Thing Prediction. Both of these states will appear in the next promotional literature as successes by all the orgs engaged in Corrections Sentencing Reform 1.0.

    Caveat emptor.


  • Because They Are Hard

    We choose to go to the moon. We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard, because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one which we intend to win, and the others, too.—John F. Kennedy

    Not because they are easy, but because they are hard.

    Our book review on Sunday (coming attractions!!!) details not only many of the elements and effects of The Perfect Storm in this country but also how fast they will be upon us. As if the way they’re already whacking us hadn’t made it all clear. We don’t have time for the famous “incremental,” “bipartisan,” “consensus” approaches that have marked Corrections Sentencing policy from the first guidelines commissions through today’s justice reinvestment activities. At their best (which are less than 50-50 in states anymore, as MO and OK have just proven to offset the possible success in GA), they don’t make the adjustments necessary to get prison populations down to the levels that The Storm will force (already is forcing) upon state budgets. The only way to get to those levels is to set goals, hard goals, not easy ones, build new systems, and restructure old ones, all of what Kennedy was talking about in his famous NASA speech.

    Jim Austin says we can hit 50% prison population reductions without major impact on public safety. Is he right? Don’t know, but some large percentage can be hit, we know from the available research. So let’s set a goal, our own “moonshot” so to speak—XX% reduction in each of our state’s prison populations by the year 2020 with no change or reductions in crime rates. That is, for 2020, we will start right now the planning and processes to close enough prisons to have XX, XXX fewer inmates in that year. Not “oh, what can we do?” but “we’re hitting this target not because it’s easy, but because it’s hard, because hitting that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills.”

    But how, oh, how? As we earlier posted here, Austin and Todd Clear have said it could be done with a combo of cutting time served back to averages of 1988, diverting tech violations from prison, and eliminating mandatories for drug crimes. Cook and Ludwig argue for shorter but more certain punishments, taxing the bejeezus (our term, not theirs) out of things we want people to stop using, more private efforts like LoJacks and Business Improvement Districts, increasing the compulsory school age to keep older teens off the streets, and working on social and cognitive skill interventions. Peter Moskos offers the possibility of renewed corporal punishment that, even if barbaric (unlike sending people behind bars years and decades beyond what is done even in different parts of the same state, much less other states or the rest of the world we compare ourselves to), I guarantee will empty quite a few cells and with vengeful victims more satisfied than now (and taxes being paid by the offender, not spent on them).

    We here at JCO have offered ten possible options to mix and match: Best Practice correctional and court management, TECHNOCORRECTIONS, decriminalization not only of drugs but other property offenses, moving substance abuse to public health for remedies where it belongs, mental health community services, turning current “crimes” over to civil and community remedies, identifying the maximum “public safety sentences” that are associated with the highest decline in recidivism (hint: they will be lower than most of the average sentences for those offenses), and splitting responsibility for the public safety component of a sentence to the state and the “community values” (aka retribution) component to the county of conviction. Clearly, these aren’t the only options out there and the elements can vary from state to state as necessary. But tell us that packages of these proposals wouldn’t immediately move us toward the XX% reduction with positive public safety by 2020.

    Can’t do them? The public won’t consent? The practitioners won’t “buy in”? Look each of those ideas over again. Where in them do you find anything that DAs, defense bar, judges, all the folks who don’t know what to do or wouldn’t support the challenges to their status quos, would have to agree to? All of them build or restructure the system to take those players off the field, as they will have to be for serious change. Corrections will have to be part of a few, but orgs like ACA and NIC are already leading the profession that direction. Everything listed above can be done by statute, most of it outside the screwed-up criminal processing system that has gotten us to this mess today.

    “But, but . . . no one will get elected on that kind of platform.” When the options are cutting school budgets even more? Thousands of dollars every year on repairing your car? More and more children sick and dying from contaminated food products? Driving off bridges that suddenly aren’t there? The future outlined in the book review Sunday (more coming attractions!!)?

    Policymakers in TX, KY, CT did. It is impossible to see either of the Kennedy brothers (and I am not a fan overall of either of them despite my fondness for their quotes) accepting that. Or LBJ. Or Nixon. Or any of the real leaders of this country back when it operated on confidence and accomplishment rather than fear and spin. Real leaders today could do, have done the same. They have a majority of the public in some states right now, most states within 2-3 years, some states admittedly never (AL and AZ leading that pack). It will take challenging us, daring us, setting hard goals, not easy ones. Leadership. The alternative is the leaderless miasma that has gotten us where we are, an alternative that will clearly be untenable and destructive to public safety as well as our general community well-being within the next few years. If it’s not clear already.

    Set high hard prison population and public safety goals for Corrections Sentencing in 2020. Bring together the people who will have to put it into action, not the obstacle-makers, and tell them “we don’t care what you do (as long as it’s legal), just pick from the options or come up with your own, and get us to the numbers or better on or before 2020.” Some people said Kennedy was crazy for pulling that stunt with the moon landing. Couldn’t be done.

    Except it was. This can be, too. Just ask another real leader: You can always amend a big plan, but you can never expand a little one. I don’t believe in little plans. I believe in plans big enough to meet a situation which we can’t possibly foresee now.-- Harry Truman

    [Additional thought in support by Ronald Wright, the historian, from A Short History of Progress:

    . . .There's a saying in Argentina that each night God cleans up the mess the Argentines made by day. This seems to be what our leaders are counting on. But it won't work. Things are moving so fast that inaction itself is one of the biggest mistakes. The 10,000-year experiment of the settled life will stand or fall by what we do, and don't do, now. The reform that is needed is not anti-capitalist, anti-American, or even deep environmentalist; it is simply the transition from short-term to long-term thinking. From recklessness and excess to moderation and the precautionary principle.

    The great advantage we have, our best chance for avoiding the fate of past societies, is that we know about those past societies. We can see how and why they went wrong. Homo sapiens has the information to know itself for what it is: an Ice Age hunter only half-evolved towards intelligence; clever but seldom wise.
    We are now at the stage when the Easter Islanders could still have halted the senseless cutting and carving, could have gathered the last trees' seeds to plant out of the reach of rats. We have the tools and the means to share resources, clean up pollution, dispense basic health care and birth control, set economic limits in line with natural ones. If we don't do these things now, while we prosper, we will never be able to do them when times get hard. Our fate will twist out of our hands. And this new century will not grow very old before we enter an age of chaos and collapse that will dwarf all the dark ages in our past.

    Now is our last chance to get the future right.

    IOW, it’s “one bite at the apple,” not “half a loaf this time.” Kennedy and Truman would understand.]



  • Lessons from Missouri's Corrections Reform

    --Mike Connelly

    I promised in today’s News below that I had a bit more to say about what has happened to Missouri’s efforts at Corrections Sentencing reform, not that such a promise is particularly important.  [Disclaimer: I participated in a minor way in the proceedings but was conspicuously not influential once you read what they’ve decided.  And, no, this is not sour grapes.  My grapes were sweet, theirs aren’t even bad raisins.]  Let’s review what occurred in the process there.

    Missouri put together a voting workgroup of the usual suspects for such things, then added an advisory group of some more such folks but including county people, victims reps, etc. They met for several months, got the usual presentations and soliloquies regarding public safety and evidence-based practice, heard about the situation the state faced, including an expected level or declining state prison population over the near term.  In the end, as we’ve noted, they produced a very weak version of what’s happened in other states but with a precedent-setting proposal to leave behind an oversight committee to verify actual savings before committing them to “reinvestment” and to monitor and adjust the implementation of the group’s recs.  The oversight survived, but in the end, the projected savings after the weak proposal had several gallons of water added to it would be $168, 657.  “Possibly more” over five years.  (Don’t you love the specificity of the amount??  Where are the “and X cents”?)

    I mentioned above one problem Missouri had that other states going through the process generally don’t. Because of previous laws and programs, the state was not looking at a growing prison population; therefore, the usual “we’ll save $X millions by diverting offenders from prison” wasn’t there to induce fear.  The status quo there is projected by the DOC stat guy to be further decline.  But, you say, didn’t that give the workgroup incentive to say, “how could we expand on that so that we could get to actually close a prison or two so that we’d have even more money for reinvestment?” 

    Well, as we cited in the News below and talked about in the past, this is a state currently deciding on whether it should whack the blind, preschools, veterans, or Medicaid in order to save $30 million.  Gee, what might cost $30 m. or so a year to operate?  Gosh, if only there were something easy to find . . . . IOW, the irony of MO’s legislature cutting aid to the blind should not be lost.  (As a poli sci guy, I do find it morbidly amusing to watch two Republicans, leaders of each house, call each other liars in the press.  The Dem governor must chuckle all the way to those would-be Republican contributors’ dinners.)

    While this article actually does a better job on the details of what passed, including the oversight committee, this article accidentally and inadvertently tells you why the bill ended up making gruel look good.  And why not only this effort but most Corrections Sentencing Reform 1.0 efforts like it across the country in the future will be more likely to turn out like it. The answer is buried near the bottom of the article (if the link doesn’t get you the quote below, google McCulloch and his state bar position and add “Kentucky” since later versions had cut this section):

    "We're very happy with the bill as it is now," said McCulloch, president of the Missouri Association of Prosecuting Attorneys.

    Some states, such as Kentucky, went too far, McCulloch said, by requiring that the state's prison population be reduced by several thousand people.

    "The easiest thing is to empty prisons," the prosecutor said. "You just start paroling people. But that hurts public safety. We wanted to make sure we stayed away from that."

    Three points.  First, McCulloch was a member of that advisory group which was presented very thorough documentation of the public safety benefits, based on real evidence from research, of what states like Kentucky had done.  I know. I was there.  If there is evidence of anything regarding outcomes, it’s not that when “you just start paroling people . . . that hurts public safety.” At least not the way KY has legislated. And where is his evidence that KY hurt its public safety by its actions?  Nada. Zip.  Pure faith-based fact-free bushwa, thrown out by someone institutionally and psychologically incapable of accepting facts that don’t correspond with his professional interests and erroneous worldview.  Ask yourself what evidence and data it would take to make him reverse that statement when he was shown what was already out there.  That’s why we make our point about not expecting Corrections Sentencing Reform 1.0, with its emphasis on EBP and tying policy to actual performance rather than the stories people already have in their heads, to have the kind of impact that will be required for the triage brought on by The Perfect Storm.  “A man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest, ooh la la la . . . “ Or, if you prefer Mark Twain, “You tell me where a man gets his cornpone, and I'll tell you what his opinions are.”

    Second,you know who got the bill as weak as it was and then well watered after.  The St. Louis DA’s citing of KY is not something he pulled out of the blue.  KY was certainly never discussed in that way in ANY of the workgroup or advisory group meetings.  This view came from talking with others, most likely the network of DAs around the country who have made it their business, as usual, to kill even 1.0 reform.  The ones who poisoned the process in Indiana when something serious was attempted there. We talk here of good DAs we’ve worked with, “angel” types, and then the “archangels” who have convinced themselves that there is no other way than that which they approve and they get approval directly from God.  The latter drive the policy positions of all of them because even “angel” DAs are rarely immune from attacks by the archangels for not being on the side of God. So the former keep quiet and the latter drive the bus.  Expect this to happen in every state trying the “consensus” approach that gives the greatest power to the one who holds out longest and threatens the most.

    Third, obviously related to both above, this also shows why DAs cannot be part of a serious reform process, why those “workgroups” like commissions and councils that include them, cannot be expected to get anything more done than what St. Louis DA types find ideologically (certainly not empirically) acceptable.  Don’t get us wrong.  Defense attorneys have done as much harm to justice with their “it’s okay to let guilty walk” approach as DAs do with their “it’s okay to lock up the innocent,” no matter how much gravy they use to cover their respective self-justifications.  There are better alternatives to the mess they’ve created.  Neither they nor judges who overwhelmingly come from the two groups should be allowed community-responsible public safety decision-making.  MO is just the latest example of why.  It did take an Einstein to figure out, “We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.”  Can they be involved to provide feedback?  If they publicly pledge to be serious about change.  But they can’t be given vested interest, silo-ed and blindered vetoes. Even “angel” ones, as noted, cannot be trusted not to spout the party line.  Just leave them off.

    “What about buy-in?!?!” Sod that.  They’re public officials.  They either follow the law or they get outed.  Make the laws and hold them to it.  Write sanctions for mal- or misfeasance into the law.  They can’t live with it, the world wasn’t created to make them happy in their career choices.  It’s the same philosophy the US Congress used to blow away opposition to federal guidelines, and that held up despite the overwhelming lack of buy-in.  And yes, I realize I just used the federal guidelines as a positive example of something.  I promise it will never happen again. 

    The point here is that the MO experience shows why Corrections Sentencing Reform 2.0 is necessary now and why it cannot come using the tired and untrue approaches to “team decision-making.”  We’ve shown the research here on the dysfunctions of teams in actual successful decisions.  They only work when the team is given and held ruthlessly to a specific task and deadline to get plans laid out to a pre-set goal.  Members can’t handle it,they get removed or replaced.  When you have to triage, as we do now in the first blasts of The Perfect Storm, you don’t have time or resources to let gamers screw with the process or ideologues play “my way, highway” to favor their constituents over the overall community.

    MO is being hailed as a success by the gamers and ideologues as well as some unfortunately sincere people who haven’t realized yet how much they failed to do.  They will, and soon.  The question is, how many other states will go through the same failure-as-success before we start taking the steps that will get us to the other side of The Storm?